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عنوان فارسی مقاله:
محصول درخت بلوط و پیش بینی حجم جستجوی گوگل خطر بیماری لایم در هوای معتدل اروپا
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Oak acorn crop and Google search volume predict Lyme disease risk in temperate Europe
سال انتشار : 2016
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مقدمه انگلیسی مقاله:
1. Introduction
Lyme borreliosis is the most common zoonosis and a major health concern in the northern hemisphere (Barbour & Fish 1993; Pfäffle, Littwin, Muders, & Petney 2013). It is caused by Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato transmitted by hard–bodied ticks (genus Ixodes), and the abundance of infected tick nymphs is a good predictor of the disease risk in humans (Barbour & Fish 1993; Ostfeld 2010; Stafford, Cartter, Magnarelli, Ertel, & Mshar 1998). In the eastern United States temporal fluctuations in oak (Quercus spp.) acorn production (mast seeding: Crone & Rapp 2014; Kelly 1994) cause temporal variation in food provision for granivorousrodents, which shapestheir population dynamics (McShea 2000; Wolff 1996). Thisin turn influencesthe abundance of infected tick nymphs and the risk of Lyme disease in humans (Jones, Ostfeld, Richard, Schauber& Wolff 1998a; Ostfeld 2010; Ostfeld, Canham, Oggenfuss, Winchcombe, & Keesing 2006; Ostfeld, Jones, & Wolff 1996; Schauber, Ostfeld, & Evans 2005). However, the connection between masting and Lyme disease in the eastern United States has been disputed, given the variety of factorsthat may contribute to the disease risk (Estrada-Pena 2009; Randolph 1998). The ecological link between mast seeding and Lyme disease in eastern United States is as follows. In summer after a good acorn year, host-seeking larvae of the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) co-occur with high abundance of rodents caused by previous year surplus food supply (Jones et al. 1998a; Ostfeld et al. 2006; Ostfeld et al. 2001). High rodent numbers increase larval feeding chances and survival, which leads to high nymph densities next season (Keesing et al. 2009; Ostfeld 2010; Ostfeld et al. 2006). Moreover, high reservoir-competence of rodent hosts increases B. burgdorferi prevalence among tick nymphs (Ostfeld et al. 2001, 2006). Next spring, numerous infected nymphs search for vertebrate hosts, including humans (Schauber et al. 2005). Nymphs are mostly responsible for transmitting Lyme disease to humans because their small size makes them difficult to detect. Moreover, their summer peak in activity coincides with the peak of human outdoor activity (Barbour & Fish 1993; Ostfeld 2010). Thus, oak acorn production in year T influences rodent abundance next year (T + 1), which subsequently affects infected nymph abundance and Lyme disease risk in year T + 2 (Barbour & Fish 1993; Ostfeld et al. 2001, 2006; Schauber et al. 2005). Fluctuations in oak acorn production have similar effects on wildlife in Europe (Bogdziewicz, Zwolak, & Crone 2016; Jedrzejewska, ˛ & Jedrzejewski ˛ 1998; Pucek, Jedrzejewski, ˛ Jedrzejewska, ˛ & Pucek 1993), but the effects of oak masting on the incidence of Lyme disease have not been studied. Seed fall in autumn determines rodent abundance next summer (Jensen 1982; Pucek et al. 1993; Zwolak, Bogdziewicz, & Rychlik 2016), and small mammals are a good reservoir for the Borrelia spirochete (Franke, Hildebrandt, & Dorn 2013; Gern 2008; Michalik, Hofman, Buczek, Skoracki, & Sikora 2003; Sinski, ´ Pawelczyk, Bajer, & Behnke 2006). Moreover, the sheep tick (Ixodes ricinus), ecological equivalent of I. scapularis in the European host–tick–pathogen system, has similar ecology to the blacklegged tick (Barbour & Fish 1993; Beytout et al. 2007; Hubálek, Halouzka, & Juˇricová 2003; Korenberg, Kovalevskii, & Gorelova 2002; Sinski ´ et al. 2006). Thus, we hypothesize that a similar chain of ecological events linking acorn production and Lyme borreliosis risk might occur in Europe. Traditional methods of gathering ecological data can be supplemented with new technologies. Temporal fluctuations in Google search volume and Wikipedia logs have been used to forecast influenza, dengue or tuberculosis outbreaks (Generous, Fairchild, Deshpande, Del Valle, & Priedhorsky 2014; Ginsberg et al. 2008; McIver & Brownstein 2014). In a recent study, Google Trends were successfully used to collect national–scale data on fluctuations in rodent numbers, to study the role of rodent predation pressure in wood warbler (Phylloscopus sibilatrix) habitat selection (Szymkowiak & Kuczynski ´ 2015). Indices of rodent abundance obtained using Google search engine were positively validated with field data (see details in Szymkowiak & Kuczynski ´ 2015). Here, we used temporal changes in Google search volume to trace ecological chain reactions linking acorn production with Lyme disease risk. We assumed that people use the Internet as a source of information about ticks and Lyme disease. Hence, an increase in number ofinteractions between humans and ticks should lead to increase in the search volume of focal keywords. We selected two unambiguous keywordsi.e., “kleszcz” (which stands for tick in Polish) and “borelioza” (Lyme disease), and calculated search volumes for each year of the study period. Moreover, we calculated search volumes for the term “na myszy” (in Polish: something for/against mice, hereafter “mice”) for each year as this appears to provide a reliable index of annual fluctuationsin rodent numbers (cf. Szymkowiak & Kuczynski ´ 2015). We used our dataset to test the predictions derived from Ostfeld et al.’s works(referenced above). First, acorn production should positively influence rodent numbers (e.g. Pucek et al. 1993). Thus, we tested whether acorn production in year T positively correlates with Google index of mice abundance in year T + 1. Second, the positive effect of acorn production (year T) on rodent numbers (year T + 1) should translate into increase in intensity of tick-human interactions and, consequently, Lyme disease cases (in year T + 2). Thus, we tested whether Google index of rodent abundance in year T + 1 correlates positively with Google search volume for “tick” in year T + 2. Next, we tested whether acorn production (year T) correlates positively with Lyme disease-related key words (“tick” and “Lyme disease”), and Lyme disease casesin year T + 2. To our knowledge, this is the first study linking temporal fluctuations in acorn production with Lyme disease risk in Europe. Our research answers the call of Jones et al. (1998b), “Nevertheless, we hope that epidemiologists will test the power of acorn production as a predictor of Lyme disease risk in European oak forests”, which stayed ignored for almost 20 years.
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کلمات کلیدی:
Contrasting emergence of Lyme disease across ecosystems : Nature ... https://www.nature.com › Nature Communications › Articles by A Mysterud - 2016 - Cited by 6 - Related articles Jun 16, 2016 - In Europe, there are several pathogenic genospecies of B. ... Figure 1: Spatial variation in Lyme disease incidence and deer population index in Norway. ..... East/South in terms of climate (temperate maritime climate in West, ... Oak acorn crop and Google search volume predict Lyme disease risk ... https://www.researchgate.net/.../288828189_Oak_acorn_crop_and_Google_search_volu... Official Full-Text Publication: Oak acorn crop and Google search volume predict Lyme disease risk in temperate Europe on ResearchGate, the professional ... [PDF]Lyme borreliosis in Europe: influences of climate and ... - WHO/Europe www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/96819/E89522.pdf by E Lindgren - 2006 - Cited by 192 - Related articles LB is the most common vector-borne disease in Europe. The highest ..... arthropod-borne infection in northern temperate climate zones around the world. In Europe the ..... Annual incidence of Lyme borreliosis in the Czech Republic, and both. Borreliosis - ECDC ecdc.europa.eu › ... › Emerging and vector-borne diseases › Tick-borne diseases Borreliosis, also known as Lyme disease, is caused by the bacterium Borrelia ... The disease can be found mainly in Europe, North America and temperate Asia. Effect of Climate Change on Lyme Disease Risk in North America https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov › NCBI › Literature › PubMed Central (PMC) by JS Brownstein - 2005 - Cited by 155 - Related articles This report predicts the effect of climate change on Lyme disease risk and ... This model relies on both seasonal temperature and humidity data to identify the .... the risk of tick-borne encephalitis from much of its present distribution in Europe ... Eurosurveillance - Lyme borreliosis in Europe www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=19906 Jul 7, 2011 - Lyme disease (or Lyme borreliosis, LB) is a multisystemic ... it is still the most prevalent arthropod-borne disease in the temperate regions of the .... For humans, exposure risk in a known tick-infested site can be as high as one ... Fall and rise of Lyme disease and other Ixodes tick-borne infections in ... https://academic.oup.com/bmb/article-pdf/54/3/647/7292615/54-3-647.pdf by AG Barbour - 1998 - Cited by 48 - Related articles increasing in temperate and Holarctic regions of the Northern hemisphere. ... Lyme disease was discovered, first in the US and soon after in Europe, comparison of the ... Although some of the increased incidence of Lyme disease can be.
