دانلود رایگان مقاله لاتین ارزیابی ادبیات سری زمانی مربوط به ارقام حسابداری از سایت الزویر
عنوان فارسی مقاله:
یک ارزیابی انتقادی از ادبیات سری زمانی در حسابداری مربوط به ارقام حسابداری سه ماهه
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
A critical assessment of the time-series literature in accounting pertaining to quarterly accounting numbers
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
The “golden age” of time-series research in accounting occurred more than three decades ago in the late 1970s when researchers initially specified ARIMA models descriptive of quarterly earnings. These descriptive findings supported a dual-process characterization of quarterly earnings comprised of quarter-to-quarter (adjacent) as well as quarter-by-quarter (seasonal) components. Early works by Foster (1977), Griffin (1977), and Brown and Rozeff (1979) provided the support for this generalization. More recent works [i. e., see Bathke, Lorek, & Willinger, 2006; Lorek & Willinger, 2007; Lorek, Willinger, & Bathke, 2008], have extended these findings using more current databases. While seasonality is not present in annual net earnings numbers, disaggregating annual net earnings into quarterly earnings allows researchers to identify potential seasonal characteristics in the data that are masked at the annual level. In fact, Lorek (1979) demonstrated that ARIMA models conditioned upon a quarterly earnings database can be used to generate one-thru-four step ahead quarterly earnings predictions which, when aggregated, yield more accurate annual earnings forecasts than those derived from random-walk models conditioned upon an annual earnings database. Thus, the disaggregation of the annual earnings series enhances predictive ability. The research methodology typically employed in time-series research is to generate firm-specific sample autocorrelation functions (SACFs) across one-thru-twelve lags for sample firms for which a lengthy time-series database of quarterly earnings has been obtained. Firm-specific SACFs are then aggregated across lags and the resulting mean SACFs are analyzed for clues with respect to model structure (i.e., stationarity, appropriate level of differencing, the presence of autoregressive and/or moving-average parameters, etc.). The advantage of this approach vis-à-vis analyzing SACFS on a firm-specific basis is that sampling variation, noise, and measurement error are mitigated. Using this approach, Griffin (1977) conducted a purely descriptive exercise in which he demonstrated that the consecutively and seasonallydifferenced quarterly earnings series exhibits spikes at both the first and fourth lags of the SACF. Such time-series behavior is consistent with the presence of both regular and seasonal moving-average parameters. Using Box–Jenkins notation, Griffin then identified the (011) X (011) ARIMA model for quarterly earnings. His descriptive evidence is consistent with the notion that adjacent and seasonal autocorrelations are present in quarterly earnings data and was instrumental in specifying the aforementioned dual-process characterization. Surprisingly, however, Griffin did not provide any predictive evidence in support of the (011) X (011) ARIMA model
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کلمات کلیدی:
PDF]Time series analysis in accounting : a survey - IDEALS @ Illinois https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/bitstream/handle/2142/.../timeseriesanalys689hopw.pdf... by WS Hopwood - 1980 - Related articles accounting literature in time series methods. This paperbriefly ... In addi- tion, the relationship between quarterly and annual earnings is theoretically derived. ... In the next section we outline a number of areas in accounting re- search where time .... ings shouldbe associated with abnormal return,as defined, above. This ... [PDF]Neural Network Forecasting of Quarterly Accounting Earnings www-2.rotman.utoronto.ca/facbios/file/CallenKwanYipYuan1996.pdf by JL Callen - Cited by 84 - Related articles ... a number of accounting studies have forecasted quarterly ... linear time series quarterly earnings models, and the artificial ... where d, [3 y and 637 are the estimated values of a. B, y. and ..... ly concerning 'statc-of—the~art' techniques. This. Accounting Theory - Page 399 - Google Books Result https://books.google.com/books?isbn=1844800296 Ahmed Riahi-Belkaoui - 2004 - Business & Economics 1 Time-series analysis Time-series analysis is a structural methodological ... be examined.4 Past values of a single data set are used to give clues regarding future ... and quarter-to-quarter components.910 Predicting future accounting earnings ... to predict future earnings, studies show that sophisticated autoregressive (or ... Foreign Exchange Issues, Capital Markets and International Banking ... https://books.google.com/books?isbn=0415538807 Khosrow Fatemi, Dominick Salvatore - 2012 - Business & Economics ... models is a prerequisite of studies dealing with the information content of accounting data ... An examination of the accounting literature on the time-series properties of ... that the focus of such studies has been on the HC accounting numbers. ... 1977; Hopwood and McKeown, 1981) and quarterly HC earnings date (e.g., ... Time-Series Properties of Earnings and Reporting Strategy of ... https://www.omicsgroup.org/.../timeseries-properties-of-earnings-and-reporting-strate... Time-Series Properties of Earnings and Reporting Strategy of Earnings Surprise .... LMVE=log (Market value of equity) at the beginning of the quarter. ... ISSUE=1 if the number of shares outstanding, adjusted for splits and dividends, increases by more than 10 percent ... accounting-marketing-persistence-parameter-1-1-0.
