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عنوان فارسی مقاله:
یک گسترش ساده تئوری dematerialization: شامل پیشرفت فنی و اثر برگشتن
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
A simple extension of dematerialization theory: Incorporation of technical progress and the rebound effect
سال انتشار : 2016
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3. Graphical representation
In inequality (6), dlnp dt and dln Gc dt are variables that can be obtained from available time series data on the growth of population and the growth of GDP. ki is a complex measure that is different for different families of technologies (but constant over time for each case) and will be given for cases later in this paper; ki has been found to be in the range of 3– 65% per year (Magee et al., 2016) for different technological domains. Finally, εdi is complex but can be estimated for specific cases and will also be considered in the cases covered later in this paper. Before undertaking empirical examination, it is useful to show graphically how the fundamental parameters (ki and εdi) delineate what is possible relative to dematerialization. Fig. 1 below depicts the time dependence (last 50 years) of the two “less-complex” terms of inequality (6), namely dlnp dt + εdi x dln Gc dt assuming εdi = 0.5, which represents an approximate value for artifacts that are evidencing declining rates of demand as a ratio of GDP. Fig. 1 demonstrates that the sum of the non-rebound growth terms exhibits a declining linear trend that favors dematerialization emerging over time. We now turn to examining the effect of key variables on dematerialization by showing the boundary defined by inequality 6 as a function of the variables. The next three graphs show the areas of materialization and dematerialization for some possible values of εdi and ki, and for approximate current values of dlnp dt anddln Gc dt (0.01 and 0.03 respectively). Fig. 2 shows that dematerialization occurs (under the somewhat reasonable assumption of ki = 0.05 and εdi = 0.5) in the lower left triangle bounded by a maximum GDP growth of 5% per year and a max population growth of 2.5%. This result is somewhat encouraging by indicating the possibility of achieving economic growth while dematerializing. Fig. 3 is even more encouraging as it shows a large dematerialization region at high (but not unreasonable) ki values when εdi = 0.5 and population growth is 1% per year. In this instance, much higher economic growth with dematerialization is possible (10% or more) at ki = 0.15 and beyond showing apparently substantial growth potential with higher rates of technical improvement. However, the encouragement offered by Figs. 2 and 3 is strongly countered by the fact that demand elasticity, εdi, is perhaps even more important than the performance improvement exponent, ki. This is shown by Fig. 4 where all possible values of ki and εdi are shown assuming actual values for population and economic growth. For all values of εdi greater than or equal to 1, no dematerialization is possible for any value of ki. In particular, inequality 6 shows that at very low εdi, ki only has to be larger than relative population growth to achieve absolute dematerialization. However, as εdi approaches 1, inequality 6 shows that absolute dematerialization is not achievable at any value of k and when εdi exceeds 1, higher ki favors materialization rather than dematerialization. These results suggest that Engel's Law9 must operate for dematerialization since it only holds when εdi is b1. Our extension of dematerialization theory to include technical performance and the rebound effect shows the extreme importance of ki and εdi in assessing the feasibility of dematerialization with economic growth. The importance of demand elasticity offsetting performance improvement is implicit in Jevons, Khazzoum, Brookes and others. Complementing this past work, the simple graphical representation (Figs. 3 and 4) adds to understanding how the key processes of technological improvement and the rebound effect exert large influence on the potential for dematerialization with economic growth. In arriving at these key findings, the model also specifies the assumptions to arrive at the results. We do not presume that answers to the key questions are thereby known- empirical results are still necessary even to assess the specific predictions of this simple model. A major challenge is to empirically estimate values for ki and εdi. The next section of the paper develops a new approach for estimating εdi: this method and a key recent data-rich paper [Nagy et al. (2013)] allows estimates for ki and εdi to be made for a large number of cases. All 57 cases consider global price data and 52 use global production data with the other five using USA production data.10 The key empirical contribution of this paper is to examine the most relevant 57 of these 62 cases in light of the dematerialization criteria given in inequality 6 (which defines the dematerialization region in Fig. 4). This involves mapping all of the 57 cases onto plots such as Fig. 4 in order to determine if they are either in the materialization region or the dematerialization region.
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کلمات کلیدی:
Industry 4.0: Entrepreneurship and Structural Change in the New ... https://books.google.com/books?isbn=3319496042 Tessaleno Devezas, João Leitão, Askar Sarygulov - 2017 - Business & Economics A simple extension of dematerialization theory: Incorporation of technical progress and the rebound effect. arXiv: 1602.00090, 26 pgs (to be published in ... Technological progress alone won't stem resource use: Researchers ... https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/01/170119120234.htm Jan 19, 2017 - The answer lies partly in whether we can "dematerialize," or reduce the .... A simple extension of dematerialization theory: Incorporation of ... Digitalization, Efficiency and the Rebound Effect | degrowth.info https://www.degrowth.info/en/2017/.../digitalization-efficiency-and-the-rebound-effec... by T Santarius - Related articles Feb 16, 2017 - Magee, C.L., Devezas, T.C., 2016. A simple extension of dematerialization theory: Incorporation of technical progress and the rebound effect. Asynchronous futures: Digital technologies at the time of the Anthro… https://www.slideshare.net/.../asynchronous-futures-digital-technologies-at-the-time-of... Jul 12, 2017 - Magee and Devezas (2017), A simple extension of dematerialization theory; 13. Moore's law postulates the doubling of the number of ... Tessaleno Devezas - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tessaleno_Devezas Tessaleno Campos Devezas is a Brazilian-born Portuguese physicist, systems theorist, and ... 5-7; A Simple Extension of Dematerialization Theory: Incorporation of Technical Progress and the Rebound Effect, arXiv 1602.00090 (to be ... Dematerialization - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dematerialization Dematerialization may refer to: Dematerialization (economics) - the reduction in the quantity of materials required to serve economic functions (doing more with ...
