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گسترش دانش بر پایه پیش بینی: سهم متمایز متن
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Extending the knowledge base of foresight: The contribution of text mining
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2. Foresight and text mining
This section introduces the two main components of this article—foresight and text mining—and gives an overview of the recent debate. 2.1. Foresight Foresight is a systematic process of looking into the long-term future of science, technology, and innovation (e.g., Martin, 1995; Cuhls, 2003). One definition of foresight is “opening to the future with every means at our disposal, developing views of future options, and then choosing between them” (Slaughter, 1995). Foresight thereby considers possible and plausible futures, since there is not only one future. In principal, the future cannot be predicted but is shaped by the decisions and actions of today. Foresight helps to assess the consequences and implications of present actions, early warnings, thinking about desirable futures, and implications of possible future events. Therefore, it is an action-oriented decision support that brings together the relevant stakeholders for an open discourse about possible futures. Foresight builds on a set of different methods (e.g., Popper and Butter, 2008) such as roadmapping (Barker and Smith, 1995; Möhrle et al., 2013) or scenario development (Reibnitz, 1991; van der Heijden, 2005). The set of methods to be selected for application depends on the scope and focus of the foresight exercise and has to be decided from case to case. Foresight, futures studies, and future technology analysis are not further distinguished in the course of this article due to their commonalities. Foresight is modular and a sequence of steps. Depending on the objectives and application level, different methods and tasks are combined. Building on previous studies (see, e.g., Martin, 1995; Horton, 1999; Voros, 2003; Da Costa et al., 2008; de Miranda Santo et al., 2006), foresight exercises might be categorized into three phases as illustrated in Fig. 2-1—input, process, and output. 2.1.1. Input Besides some overall objectives, a process scope is defined, a time horizon is set, and information about recent trends and developments is gathered with regard to the considered field. At the beginning of almost every process, the state-of-the-art has to be summarized. Therefore, this first step relates to collecting and summarizing the available information to get an overview of the present situation (Horton, 1999). 2.1.2. Process Future technology analysis might be seen as a process of knowledge creation (Eerola and Miles, 2011). Specific foresight methods are applied according to the scope and process objectives. By this, important information about the future and possible future developments is gathered and knowledge is generated, which later serves as decision support. 2.1.3. Output The results are assessed, priorities are set, and strategies are formulated (de Miranda Santo et al., 2006). This phase is about taking action (Horton, 1999). Diverse interests or expectations related to foresight outcomes exist. One intention of foresight is to support the design of futureoriented strategies. Furthermore, political or governmental actors expect recommendations for planning or setting priorities for research programs (Havas et al., 2010; Könnölä et al., 2011; de Smedt, 2013).
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Extending the knowledge base of foresight: The ... - Fraunhofer-Publica publica.fraunhofer.de/documents/N-434977.html Abstract While the volume of data from heterogeneous sources grows considerably, foresight and its methods rarely benefit from such available data. This work ... [PDF]Knowledge Base of Futures Studies - Foresight International foresightinternational.com.au/wp-content/uploads/.../KBFS_Series_Introduction.pdf species to think ahead and to apply foresight to the solving of practical problems. ... In essence, this is why FS needs to refine and develop its knowledge base ... Futures studies - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_studies Futures studies (also called futurology) is the study of postulating possible, probable, and ... Futures studies and strategic foresight are the academic field's most .... Richard A. Slaughter's The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, a collection of ... Projects - European Foresight - Europa EU foresight.jrc.ec.europa.eu/projects.html Current and recent projects of the JRC-IPTS European Foresight activity include: ... European Foresight Platform (EFP): To consolidate the knowledge base on ... Knowledge Base – ForesightBiotech foresightbiotech.com/knowledge-base/ We are updating this section. Company. About Us · Awards; Scientific Advisory Board; Clients & Associates; Careers. Events. Workshops · Conferences and ... Foresight Knowledge & Methods 1 | Units of study | Swinburne ... https://www.swinburne.edu.au/study/courses/units/Foresight-Knowledge...1.../local It introduces students to a grounding of foresight methodologies and the sources of a knowledge base for future studies. The module focusses on the ...
