دانلود رایگان مقاله لاتین کربن سازی در راهبرد رشد سبز؟ مورد کره جنوبی از سایت الزویر
عنوان فارسی مقاله:
کربن سازی در استراتژی های رشد سبز؟ مورد کره جنوبی
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Decarbonization under Green Growth Strategies? The case of South Korea
سال انتشار : 2015
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
3. Results and discussion
After the 2008/09 financial crisis, the development of CO2 emissions in Korea was consistent with the CO2 rebound effect that was estimated globally. The lowering impact of the crisis on emission levels was "short-lived owing to strong emissions growth in emerging economies, a return to emissions growth in developed economies, and an increase in the fossil-fuel intensity of the world economy.” (Peters et al., 2012). Korea is no exception to this and after modest growth – not even reductions – of CO2 emissions by 11Mt (2.3%) in 2008 and 14Mt (2.8%) in 2009, emissions soared up by a staggering 49Mt (9.5%) in 2010. While the strong carbon-rebound and the continued growth of CO2 emissions until 2012 are a first indication for the lack of effectiveness of the Korean green stimulus, further analysis is needed to understand the dynamics of various drivers of CO2 emissions and whether they have been affected by policies under the Korean Green Growth Strategy. The decomposition of CO2 emissions from energy between 2008 and 2012 is a first step to understand which factors drove the increase of emissions or mitigated an even further increase. 3.1.Disentangling key drivers for the period 2008-2012 The additive decomposition of CO2 emissions from energy revealed that between 2008 and 2012 a large share of additional annual emissions was caused by increased economic activity (measured in GDPpc), which had an emission-enhancing effect of 56Mt (see Figure 1). Both the financial crisis and the recovery are covered by the 2008 to 2012 period, in order to avoid distortions of the results by the rebound of GDP and emissions after the crisis. Figure 1: Results of additive LMDI decomposition of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in Korea for the period 2008-2012 MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT 8 The rise in emissions caused by the strong economic activity effect was not mitigated by other drivers. On the contrary, changes in the energy intensity and in the energy mix caused a significant increase in annual CO2 emissions, of 15Mt and 21Mt respectively.3 If the energy intensity is based on TFC of energy instead of TPES, the energy intensity effect almost completely disappears. Instead the energy transformation effect, which is based on changes in the ratio between TFC and TPES, drives up annual emissions by 13Mt. This indicates that additional emissions have been triggered by increased losses on the way from energy supply to final consumption, which is due to a higher combined share of coal and natural gas – fuels that are mainly used for power generation, where significant losses occur. The only mitigating effect of 12Mt CO2 occurred because of lowering implied emission factors of carbon fuels. This effect can be entirely explained by the decrease in the implied emission factor of oil4 , i.e. in 2012 less CO2 was emitted per ton of TPES of oil than in 2008. The short-term analysis of CO2 emission drivers does not indicate a win-win outcome of the Korean Green Growth Strategy. Increased economic activity had the expected emission-enhancing effect, but it was not even partly offset by improvements in energy intensity or the decarbonization of its energy mix. The following section further investigates what historically were the main drivers of CO2 emissions, and whether current developments have been the continuation of (i.e. path dependency) or departure from a long-term trend. 3.2.Unravelling CO2 emission drivers for the period 1971-2012 The development of historic CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in Korea from 1971 to 2012 can be best explained by GDP per capita and the energy intensity of the economy. This is the main finding from econometric tests and stepwise regression (details in Appendix B), which resulted in a model where only GDP per capita and energy intensity are left as drivers (see Figure 2). This model explains 99.6% of the variability of CO2 emissions. The findings from stepwise regression analysis are consistent with the results from additive decomposition for the same time period (see Figure 3), where the effect from economic activity (GDPpc) on CO2 emission is clearly dominating. It contributed to increased annual emissions with more than 500Mt from 1971 to 2012. The energy intensity effect (E_int_fc) has mitigated additional CO2 emissions since the late 90s, whereas the energy transformation effect (E_transf) and the energy mix (E_mix) effect increased emissions over the same time period. The second mitigating effect besides energy intensity improvements can be attributed to changing implied emission factors (C_factor).
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کلمات کلیدی:
Global Green Shift: When Ceres Meets Gaia https://books.google.com/books?isbn=1783086424 John A. Mathews - 2017 - Business & Economics China in particular has embraced these green growth strategies with ... and India green their industry and financial systems, they effectively decarbonize their ... must bring them under control from an environmental and ecological standpoint. Reaction round-up: What does the green economy make of the Clean ... https://www.edie.net/.../Reaction-round-up--What-does-the-green-economy-make-of-... Oct 12, 2017 - The UK is less than half way to meeting its low-carbon heat targets, while the share of ... “The Clean Growth Strategy recognises that the transition to ... as is the recognition that decarbonisation and economic growth are not ... Agricultural Management Strategies in a Changing Economy https://books.google.com/books?isbn=1466675225 Popescu, Gabriel - 2015 - Business & Economics Green growth attempts should characterize better urban administration and ... green growth lies notably in finding how the alterations needed to decarbonize the ...
