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عنوان فارسی مقاله:
بازنگری کارایی پیش بینی نسبی کارکنان فدرال و پیش بینی کننده های خصوصی: یک رویکرد پویا
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Revisiting the relative forecast performances of Fed staff and private forecasters: A dynamic approach
سال انتشار : 2016
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
2. A brief review of the literature
Greenbook forecasts are thought to provide the FOMC with an information advantage relative to private forecasters because (see Romer & Romer, 2000), first, Greenbook forecasts are more accurate than private forecasts, that is, they have lower root mean square errors (RMSE); and, second, private sector forecasts have little or no additional explanatory power for inflation, relative to the Fed’s Greenbook forecast. The relative performances of private sector and staff forecasts have been the subject of a series of empirical studies. Due to data availability limitations, most of the studies examining this issue have considered the US. For various different samples, ranging from the late 1960s to the mid-1990s, several studies investigating the forecast accuracy have supported the finding on the Fed’s information advantage (see D’Agostino & Whelan, 2008; Gavin & Mandal, 2003; Peek, Rosengren, & Tootell, 2003; Reifschneider & Tulip, 2007; Sims, 2002). However, a more recent study by Gamber and Smith (2009) found that the gap between the Greenbook forecasts and private forecasts has narrowed considerably since the mid-1980s, especially since 1994.
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کلمات کلیدی:
Revisiting the relative forecast performances of Fed staff and private ... www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207015001065 by M El-Shagi - 2016 - Cited by 2 - Related articles This paper aims to extend the findings of Romer and Romer (2000) to a setup where the time variation of (relative) forecast performances is addressed in much ... Revisiting the Greenbook's relative forecasting performance | Cairn.info www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce-2015-1-page-151.htm by P Hubert - 2015 - Cited by 9 - Related articles This work has led many authors to assess the relative forecasting performance of the Federal Reserve and the US private sector among which Joutz and Stekler ... EconPapers: Revisiting the relative forecast performances of Fed staff ... econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:32:y:2016:i:2:p:313-323 by M El-Shagi - 2016 - Cited by 2 - Related articles Abstract: This paper aims to extend the findings of Romer and Romer (2000) to a setup where the time variation of (relative) forecast performances is addressed ... Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance https://ideas.repec.org/p/spo/.../infohdl2441-35kgubh40v9gfpnuruelqjnptb.html by P Hubert - 2015 - Cited by 9 - Related articles Downloadable! Since Romer and Romer (2000), a large literature has dealt with the relative forecasting performance of Greenbook macroeconomic forecasts of ... Revisiting the Greenbook's Relative Forecasting Performance by Paul ... https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2646279 by P Hubert - 2015 - Cited by 9 - Related articles Aug 19, 2015 - Since Romer and Romer (2000), a large literature has dealt with the relative forecasting performance of Greenbook macroeconomic forecasts ...
