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عنوان فارسی مقاله:
چگونه جمع آوری اطلاعات، پیش بینی نتایج حاصل از بازار را بهبود می بخشد
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
How crowdsourcing improves prediction of market-oriented outcomes
سال انتشار : 2016
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
2. Literature review
2.1. Crowdsourcing applications Crowdsourcing applications aggregate the judgment of many people across the firm to predict uncertain market outcomes, the resulting aggregated prediction may be more accurate than traditional methods used within firms because with crowdsourcing, individual participants process market information differently. We propose that the way acquisition, distribution, and interpretation are performed within a crowdsourcing application produces superior market prediction results. As a result, these applications may perform market information aprocessing better than traditional methods commonly used within firms. Crowdsourcing applications can be categorized into trading and non-trading-based platforms. The former include, for example, decision markets, political stock markets, event futures, and prediction markets (Horn, Ohneberg, Ivens, & Brem, 2014; Servan-Schreiber, 2013). These have been used to predict political, finance, movie, and sports outcomes. In business, this type of application has been deployed at firms such as Hewlett-Packard (Ho & Chen, 2007), Intel (Hopman, 2007), and Google (Cowgill, Wolfers, & Zitzewitz, 2009) where they have been found to perform as well as, and in many cases, better than existing traditional methods in terms of estimates, error rates, and variability. For example, Hopman (2007) and Ho and Chen (2007) report more accurate predictions in 75% of the cases examined. For reasons related to trading complexity with trading-based platforms, non-trading-based crowdsourcing platforms—which are easier for people with no stock trading experience to use and do not suffer from legal challenges associated with betting—are emerging (Servan-Schreiber, 2013). These include, for example, forecasting competitions or tournaments (Afuah & Tucci, 2012; Good Judgment Project, 2014) and idea markets (Soukhoroukova, Spann, & Skiera, 2012), which are more suitable for use in corporate settings.
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کلمات کلیدی:
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