دانلود رایگان مقاله لاتین پیش بینی قیمت مواد غذایی از سایت الزویر
عنوان فارسی مقاله:
پیش بینی قیمت مواد غذایی: مورد ذرت، سویا و گندم
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Forecasting food prices: The case of corn, soybeans and wheat
سال انتشار : 20116
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
3. Model designs
This section explains the econometric approach that we followed for estimating models that can be used to obtain conditional forecasts of food prices. (i) We started by estimating an equilibrium correction model (EqCM) for each food price (corn, soybeans and wheat) over the period 1994Q3–2007Q4 (the insample period), using a single-equation approach that includes levels as well as differences. These EqCMs, which nest long-run and short-run behaviours, allow us to take into account supply and demand determinants along with the effects of macro and financial variables. This representation is also useful when both (co)integrated and stationary variables are included in the models. (ii) After estimating these models, we studied the residual cross-correlations in order to evaluate their interdependence, and carried out joint modelling if necessary. For example, agents involved in agribusiness often use the soybean to corn price ratio as a rule of thumb to guide their decisions. A general rule of thumb is that when the price of soybeans is more than 2.4–2.5 times the price of corn, farmers will probably plant more soybeans than corn. Thus, we analyse econometrically how these prices, along with the wheat prices, are related econometrically, by following a system approach for evaluating cointegration relationships and weak exogeneity. The EqCMs of the cointegrated prices may be seen as partial systems, and therefore the cointegration results will remain valid if more variables are added to a larger system (see e.g. Juselius, 2006, ch. 19).
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کلمات کلیدی:
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