دانلود رایگان مقاله لاتین پیش بینی استراتژیک از سایت الزویر
عنوان فارسی مقاله:
ماهیت تحقیق پیش بینی استراتژیک: یک بررسی ادبی سیستماتیک
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
The nature of strategic foresight research: A systematic literature review
سال انتشار : 2016
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
2. Method
Our focus here is on a stand-alone literature review, as opposed to literature reviews that set the theoretical background for a specific research question. Following Fink (2013), a stand-alone literature must be systematic in following a methodological approach, explicit in explaining the procedures by which it was conducted, comprehensive in its scope of including all relevant material, and hence reproducible by others who would follow the same approach in reviewing the topic. Our method, as well as the research questions, are based on the guidelines and principles outlined by Okoli and Schabram (2010). The two main objectives for this review are to identify, classify, and summarize existing research on strategic foresight; and to identify areas and opportunities for future research. The methodology for the systematic literature review is documented below. 2.1. Review topics Research reports published in scientific journals are organized in fairly consistent formats. It starts with an introduction where the research is positioned within a larger context and the research question is presented, followed by the theoretical foundation on which the research is to be based. Then the research design is reported and the methodology specified. Finally, the findings are presented including contributions and conclusions. The review topics selected and addressed by this literature review follows this general structure. We shall, however, start by collecting some descriptive statistics. More specifically, based on Okoli and Schabram's guidelines (2010), we have defined the following review questions: RQ1: Which journals are used for publication of strategic foresight research; who publish where and when? RQ2: What research subjects have been addressed? RQ3: What theoretical frameworks and reference theories have been applied to study the topic? We would like to know which theories and models have been used in existing research. RQ4: What research methods have been used? As a guide to future studies, we identify the approaches that have been adopted. We use Orlikowski and Baroudi's (1991) conceptual and empirical categories to organize the approaches. Conceptual research refers to studies that formulate emerging concepts, models, and frameworks, while empirical research refers to surveys, interviews, case studies, multi-method research, and experiments. RQ5: What conclusions can be drawn from existing research? We summarize and analyze findings from existing research in order to draw conclusions on central issues. 2.2. The search process The search process was organized according to guidelines found in Okoli and Schabram (2010); Webster and Watson (2002); Kitchenham et al. (2009). The key search word was “Strategic Foresight.” Our goal was to identify articles presenting research of validated quality. We searched two leading online directories, the Business Source Complete (EBSCO Host) and ScienceDirect. Following the recommendations of Webster and Watson (2002), we also reviewed the citations in the articles identified in the directories.
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کلمات کلیدی:
4. Discussion
In this section, we analyze findings from current research in order to answer research question 5: What conclusions can be drawn from existing research? In our analysis, we focused on the three main subjects: Adoption, Approach, and Outcome. 4.1. Adoption 4.1.1. Use of strategic foresight and motivation Research has studied the attractiveness of strategic foresight at two levels of analysis: the national and regional level and the business sector level. At the national and regional level, we identified two studies. In a 2008 survey that included 44 large European firms (A13), the researcher found that an overwhelming majority of the participants had many years' experience with strategic foresight. Fifty percent of the responding companies had run their own foresight process for up to 10 years, and about 25% for up to 3 years. In contrast, a 2013 survey found that the practice of foresight in Tunisian companies was limited but that interest was increasing (A42). We identified one study at the business sector level, a 2009 multiple-case study among 30 biotechnological firms in Germany (A25). This study concluded that the application of strategic foresight was low, even by companies already using it to some extent.
