دانلود رایگان مقاله لاتین هشدار سود چرخه کسب و کار از سایت الزویر
عنوان فارسی مقاله:
بد، رونق و ورشکستگی: هشدارهای سود در طول چرخه کسب و کار
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
The Bad, the boom and the bust: Profit warnings over the business cycle
سال انتشار : 2016
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
2. Related literature
Kasznik and Lev (1995) show that the market reaction to a profit warning is significantly more negative than for nonwarning firms with bad earnings surprises. Tucker (2007) reports that firms with a large amount of bad news (not necessarily profit warnings) are worse off in the short-term for having warned than for being silent. A profit warning may take the form of a specific earnings revision forecast or may be more qualitative in nature. Church and Donker (2009) show that providing greater transparency in the profit warning disclosure dampens the negative market response. Spohr (2014) in their study of PWs in Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Iceland found the market response was larger for riskier firms. Jackson and Madura (2003) report that the announcement reaction is more severe for small firms, but there appears to be some anticipation of the warning for large firms. Lastly, the magnitude of the PW market reaction has attenuated after the implementation of the Regulation Fair Disclosure (Jackson & Madura, 2007), suggesting that more transparency leads to less surprise by the market. Investors may interpret the signal provided by a PW differently over the business cycle. Barberis et al. (1998) describes investor sentiment as being overly optimistic at times and overly pessimistic at other times. Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) and Nofsinger (2012) have shown a link between investor sentiment and the business cycle. During an economic expansion, investors are predominately exposed to good news. Over an extended expansion, investors’ extrapolation bias leads them to become optimistic and good news becomes the norm, thus it is expected. During this time, bad news is more of a surprise because it is out of the expected norm. On the other hand, during an economic contraction, investors predominately hear bad news. Investor sentiment changes and becomes more pessimistic. During these contraction times, bad news becomes the expected norm, and thus it is less of a surprise. Therefore, due to their sentiment, investors may react differently to bad news during economic expansion versus contraction periods. The sentimentliterature casts investors in differentframes of mind and as having different expectations over the business cycle. Veronesi (1999) models different expectations in a regime switching model. While in ‘good times,’ the model predicts that stock prices will overreact to bad news. The bad news surprise forces investors to consider whether the regime has switched to ‘bad times.’ Conrad et al. (2002) empirically test the model with earnings surprises. They compare the stock price reaction between these scheduled announcements in high valuation stock markets (high P/E ratio) versus low valuation markets. They find that the negative reaction to poor earnings surprises is of higher magnitude during the high valuation market periods. We examine the stock price reaction of voluntary earnings guidance warnings (PWs) by management over the business cycle.
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