دانلود رایگان مقاله لاتین مدل خاکستری جریان بازگشتی وسایل نقلیه از سایت الزویر
عنوان فارسی مقاله:
سیستم پیش بینی مبتنی بر مدل خاکستری برای جریان بازگشتی وسایل نقلیه پایان عمر
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Grey modelling based forecasting system for return flow of end-of-life vehicles
سال انتشار : 2016
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
4. Experimental results
In this paper, the proposed forecasting system is applied to the endof-life vehicle return flow prediction in Turkey. Historical data sets for discarded end-of-life vehicles are provided from TURKSTAT for each region in Turkey. Eighty-one cities in Turkey are partitioned into 12 geographic regions. The regions in Turkey and the included cities are shown in Table 1. Future predictions of Turkey's end-of-life vehicle return flow are performed for each region in this study. In the scope of this study, only the number of discarded cars are considered and modeled for future prediction. It should be noted that, end of-life vehicle term includes vehicles returned from the end user and full-damaged vehicles came from insurance companies. In Fig. 7, the number of end-of-life vehicles returned for recovery or disposal in the 12 regions in Turkey between the years 2008 to 2013 is presented graphically. The data sets of the 12 regions have different characteristics and trends. For the regions which have low population density or low economic strength, as well as in relation with total number of registered vehicles in the region, the number of end-of-life vehicles is at low levels. Similarly, in the regions which have high population density or high economic strength and high number of total registered vehicles, the number of end-of-life vehicles is at high levels. Although each data set has different trend, we can see from the Fig. 7 that, in the years 2009 and 2010 there is an increase in the number of end-of-life vehicles. This increase can be a result of tax discounts or other contributions for purchasing new vehicles. End-of-Life Vehicle directive in Turkey is published in 2009 (December 30th) and the directive is started to be applied in 2011 (January 1st). It can also be interpreted from the Fig. 7 that, the directive does not have a significant effect on the number of end-of-life vehicles for each region as an increasing trend. Figs. 8 and 9 presents total number of vehicles (car) and number of yearly new registered vehicles (car) in each region of Turkey which are obtained from TURKSTAT. It is clear from the Fig. 8 that, total numbers of registered vehicles are increasing every year in each region of Turkey and maximum number of vehicles belongs to İstanbul. Similarly new vehicle registration in İstanbul is more than the other regions (Fig. 9). However, considering Figs. 7 and 9, it is observed that numbers of discarded vehicles are considerably less than numbers of new registered vehicles for each region. This results increase in total number of vehicles and shows that the vehicles are also active in secondary market
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کلمات کلیدی:
Network modeling for reverse flows of end-of-life vehicles. - NCBI https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25659298 by S Ene - 2015 - Cited by 11 - Related articles Waste Manag. 2015 Apr;38:284-96. doi: 10.1016/j.wasman.2015.01.007. Epub 2015 Feb 7. Network modeling for reverse flows of end-of-life vehicles. Ene S(1) ... [PDF]Network modeling for reverse flows of end-of-life vehicles - Aprender https://aprender.ead.unb.br/.../Network%20modeling%20for%20reverse%20flows%2... recovery for end-of-life vehicles' reverse logistics network design problem by ..... The reverse logistics network of returned vehicles starts with receiving the ... Unintentional Flow of Alloying Elements in Steel during Recycling of ... onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.12095/abstract by H Ohno - 2014 - Cited by 35 - Related articles Jan 25, 2014 - Application of the model to Japanese data indicates the critical importance of the recycling of EOL vehicles (ELVs) in Japan because ... Grey modelling based forecasting system for return flow of end-of-life ... https://www.deepdyve.com/.../grey-modelling-based-forecasting-system-for-return-flow... Read "Grey modelling based forecasting system for return flow of end-of-life vehicles, Technological Forecasting and Social Change" on DeepDyve, the largest ...
