دانلود رایگان مقاله لاتین فعالیت اقتصادی فنلاندی از سایت الزویر
عنوان فارسی مقاله:
پیش بینی فعالیت های اقتصادی فنلاندی با استفاده از داده ها در سطح بنگاه
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Predicting Finnish economic activity using firm-level data
سال انتشار : 2016
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3. Data description
The variable that we are interested in for this study is the year-on-year growth rate of the Trend Indicator of Output (TIO), which measures Finnish economic activity on a monthly basis. The sample period starts in January 1999 and ends in December 2012. In the out-of-sample nowcasting experiment in Section 4, we nowcast TIO starting from January 2006, giving us a total of 84 observations. To allow for the statistical agency applying possible modifications to the indicator, we do not seasonally adjust the original TIO series. However, taking year-on-year growth rates should remove possible seasonal components. We also follow this strategy for the firm turnovers. To check for the absence of seasonality in our data, we regress the firm turnovers and the TIO onto a constant and a set of seasonal dummies. We find that the p-value associated with the F-statistic of these regressions is less than 5% only twice, indicating that seasonal effects are not important in our turnover dataset. A similar result is found for the TIO and the estimated factors. The TIO is currently released by Statistics Finland with two different time schedules, depending on the reference month. For the first two months of a given quarter, the TIO is released 65 days after the end of the reference month. For the last month of a given quarter, it is published 45 days after the end of the reference period.2 The TIO is revised after its first publication, and these revisions reflect both changes in the source of data and revisions due to benchmarking. The data sources are split between the price development and value data, which are aggregated to a 2-digit level. The primary sources of data for private manufacturing are the preliminary turnover indices (which are accumulated quickly), while the main sources for the public sector are preliminary wages and salaries.
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Predicting Finnish economic activity using firm-level data - IDEAS/RePEc https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v32y2016i1p10-19.html by P Fornaro - 2016 - Related articles Downloadable (with restrictions)! In this paper, we compute flash estimates of Finnish monthly economic activity using firm-level data. We use a two-step ... [PDF]UNIVERSITY OF VAASA Forecasting Economic Activity with Financial ... www.uva.fi/materiaali/pdf/isbn_17-2012.pdf by PKJ Vataja - Related articles returns is evaluated by forecasting out-of-sample GDP growth in Finland during the ... the simple term spread for predicting economic activity (e.g., Harvey 1988; ... Finland - Economic forecast summary (June 2017) - OECD www.oecd.org › Economics Department › Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts Finland - Economic forecast summary (June 2017). READ full country note (PDF). Growth is projected to strengthen as higher foreign demand and improved ... Predicting Finnish economic activity using firm-level ... - Tilastokeskus tilastokeskus.fi › Tuotteet ja palvelut › Julkaisut › Julkaisuluettelo Translate this page The paper presents a new way to compute flash estimates of the Finnish monthly economic activity indicator, using firm-level data. A two-step procedure is used ... Predicting Economic Activity with Financial Market ... - Emerald Insight www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1108/S1571-038620140000023008 by P Kuosmanen - 2014 - Related articles yield curve or even the simple term spread for predicting economic activity .... downs of the Finnish economy pose a true challenge for forecasting eco-. Predicting Finnish Economic Activity Using Firm-Level Data - Tuhat ... https://tuhat.helsinki.fi/.../predicting-finnish-(23f7e4ac-5b50-4d05-... - Translate this page Kieli, Englanti. Lehti, International Journal of Forecasting. Vuosikerta / volyymi, 32. Lehden numero, 1. Sivunumerot, 10-19. Sivumäärä, 10. ISSN, 0169-2070. Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance https://books.google.com/books?isbn=178350756X Georgios P. Kouretas, Athanasios P. Papadopoulos - 2014 - Business & Economics ... not necessarily be the best single predictor of economic growth in the euro area. ... has gained wide acceptance as the single best indicator of economic activity ... the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the Finnish economy is subject to ...
