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عنوان فارسی مقاله:
چه نوع نظم جهانی؟ رویکرد شبکه عصبی مصنوعی برای داده کاوی متمرکز
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
What kind of ‘world order’? An artificial neural networks approach to intensive data mining
سال انتشار : 2017
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
2. Alliances, conflict, polarization: the grammar of the world order
The clash of civilizations theory is not the most compelling way to analytically tackle world order issues (Chirot, 2001; Henderson and Tucker, 2001). Nevertheless, it has affirmed itself as a political myth, that is, a self-fulfilling prophecy which, rather than having an explanatory value, becomes an overarching narrative with major appeal to media and ideological commentators (Bottici and Challand, 2006; Bantimaroudis and Kampanellou, 2007), and a social phenomenon in itself (Welch, 1997) – and thus, turns out to be, according to cases, what the relevant actors make of it (Houghton, 2009) to influence the political agenda (Aisha, 2003), rather than a logical construct with precise empirical correlatives and solid scientific ambitions (Henningsen, 2014). On the other hand, a certainly important aspect of Huntington's thesis is that it has sparked a vast literature which, in order to put the thesis at test, has significantly revamped interest toward the role of interacting civilizations in determining the structure of the world order (Russett et al., 2000), the usefulness of clear-cut statistical hypothesis testing (Chiozza, 2002; Tusicisny, 2004), and the socio-anthropological foundations of inter-cultural conflict (Senghaas, 1998), among others. The literature on world order emphasizes the role of a constellation of factors, which are difficult to be reunited in a compact, simple theoretical statement about the causes of alliance formation, polarization, and conflict. Among the factors leading to alliance formation, we find an intent to stabilize an otherwise potentially chaotic global arena (Saperstein, 1992) through boundedly rational strategies of domination and counter-domination (Faber, 1990), which may possibly lead to sophisticated forms of multi-spatial meta-governance (Jessop, 2012). Alliance formation may moreover be responsive to specific governance factors, such as sharing security costs as a response to increasing internal social demands (Kimball, 2010), or to specific strategic needs such as sending public, costly signals of intentions of military cooperation (Warren, 2010).
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