دانلود رایگان مقاله لاتین سناریوی عملکرد گندم از سایت الزویر
عنوان فارسی مقاله:
پیش بینی فناوری با استفاده از تحلیل سری تاثیر گذار بر روند مداخله سری زمانی برای سناریوی عملکرد گندم در هند
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Technology forecasting using time series intervention based trend impact analysis for wheat yield scenario in India
سال انتشار : 2017
برای دانلود رایگان مقاله سناریوی عملکرد گندم اینجا کلیک نمایید.
بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
4. Proposed new TIA approach
The proposed TIA approach used the modified intervention model discussed above in Section 3 to generate all possible scenarios based on unprecedented events. The data requirements in this proposed new TIA is less as compared to conventional TIA approach. It can also answer about expected future if some particular event occur in particular time. The newly proposed TIA approach is based on three major steps i.e. (i) to get baseline forecast may be using ARIMA model, (ii) to use modified intervention model (proposed in Section 3) for generation of all possible scenarios and (iii) integration of baseline forecast with the modified intervention model. In the existing approaches of TIA (Hennen and Benninga, 2009; Lotfi and Pela, 2009; Agami et al., 2008, 2009, 2010) require subjective probability associated with each event for implementation of Monte Carlo simulation approach. As the proposed algorithm, assumed that unprecedented event/technology (or set of events/ technologies) can occur any time in future, hence, the proposed algorithm does not require subjective probabilities of events. In addition, the existing TIA approaches require huge amount of data. For example, suppose an event occurs at time t, then it is required to obtain impact at time t, t + 1, t + 2, …,tm, tm+1, …ts-1,ts. However, in this proposed approach, for each particular event five parameters need to be specified i.e. initial impact, maximum impact, steadystate impact, time to maximum impact and time to steady-state impact.
برای دانلود رایگان مقاله سناریوی عملکرد گندم اینجا کلیک نمایید.
کلمات کلیدی:
Complete guide to create a Time Series Forecast (with Codes in Python) https://www.analyticsvidhya.com › Business Analytics Feb 6, 2016 - Complete guide to create time series forecasting with Python ..... I won't go into the technical details but you should understand these concepts ... [PDF]ARIMA Modeling With Intervention to Forecast and Analyze Chinese ... hrcak.srce.hr/file/106496 by JE Jarrett - 2011 - Cited by 13 - Related articles Forecast and Analyze Chinese Stock Prices. Research Paper ... ARIMA-Intervention time series analysis as both an ... Tiao, 1975); and to assess the prediction and forecasting ..... Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 15, 244-. 250. [PDF]Intelligent techniques for forecasting multiple time series in real-world ... https://cs.adelaide.edu.au/~zbyszek/Papers/p51.pdf by N Wagner - Cited by 14 - Related articles Polish-Japanese Institute of Information Technology, Warsaw, Poland, and ... systems require the forecasting of a very large portfolio of time series with differing characteristics, for ... efficiently and without human intervention must be employed. modeling and forecasting rye price using arima model www.ejpau.media.pl/volume17/issue4/art-03.html Nov 6, 2014 - Covered by IFIS Publishing (Food Science and Technology Abstracts), ... Diagnostics, calculations and forecasting were conducted using STATISTICA package. Key words: time series analysis, ARIMA model, intervention, ... Using time-series intervention analysis to understand U.S. Medicaid ... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21397882 by Y Ferrand - 2011 - Cited by 12 - Related articles Mar 2, 2010 - Using time-series intervention analysis to understand U.S. Medicaid ... Forecasts from the models were compared with a holdout sample of ...
