دانلود رایگان مقاله لاتین ریسک پروژه مهندسی بین المللی از سایت الزویر
عنوان فارسی مقاله:
بهبود ارزیابی ریسک در امکان مالی پروژه های مهندسی بین المللی: چشم انداز محرک ریسک
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Improving risk assessment in financial feasibility of international engineering projects: A risk driver perspective
سال انتشار : 2017
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
2. The traditional quantitative risk assessment model
Risk assessment can be divided into qualitative and quantitative methods, with the traditional academic focus being on the latter (Tah and Carr, 2001). Quantitative risk assessment is inherently related to risk modelling (Taroun, 2013). Risk modelling has developed along with the shift of risk perception from an estimation variance initially (Edwards and Bowen, 1998; Taroun, 2013) to a project attribute later (Dikmen et al., 2007; Merna and Al-Thani, 2008). As a result, risk is mainly evaluated on two dimensions: the probability of occurrence and impact. Correspondingly, risk assessment tools have evolved from statistical methods based on probability theory (e.g., Edwards and Bowen, 1998) to analytical tools (e.g., Lazzerini and Mkrtchyan, 2011; Nieto-Morote and Ruz-Vila, 2011), such as the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and decision trees, and stochastic simulation (e.g., Choudhry et al., 2014)—used to simulate independent variables based on a set of random values to obtain probability distributions of the forecast variables, such as Monte Carlo simulation. The most common quantitative risk assessment tools for investment decision-making are decision trees and Monte Carlo simulation. A decision tree model predicts target variables through a set of prediction rules that are arranged in a tree-like structure (Syachrani et al., 2012). It is used to represent different decision alternatives and their consequences. However, the analysis of decision trees is based on a single-value point estimate as an average outcome for the long run, which limits their real-life applications to a narrow scope of decision problems (Moussa et al., 2006). Monte Carlo simulation, on the other hand, is suitable for use with objects with probabilistic characteristics and is able to generate additional data (Shen et al., 2011) to produce probability distributions of possible outcome values and also indicate which inputs affect the outcome the most, which makes it the most common and applicable tool for quantifying investment risks in major engineering projects. Investors need to make decisions based on the likely values of the financial results of investment, using metrics such as NPV and IRR (Li and Sinha, 2009; Warszawski and Sacks, 2004; Hartman and Schafrick, 2004), and the use Monte Carlo simulation enables risk managers to determine their probability distributions by specifying influencing factors or independent variables (IVs), such as capital expenditure, operation costs, maintenance costs, productivity, product prices, prices of raw materials and inflation indices (Ye and Tiong, 2000; Davidson et al., 2006; Girmscheid, 2009; Hawas and Cifuentes, 2014), as probability distributions and calculating the results repeatedly, each time using a different set of random values from the probability functions. To do this necessitates risk managers defining the form of the IV probability distributions and their associated parameters. However, these parameters are themselves uncertain. Product price, price of raw materials and the inflation index, for example, are affected by risk events, such as the breakout of the global financial crisis. In traditional quantitative risk assessment practice, the values of these uncertain IV parameters are estimated based on predictions and assumptions about the future. Investors cannot lower the possible losses incurred from the variation of uncertain parameters by making an increased effort. Nevertheless, investors still can lower or eliminate risk by further efforts. Most engineering project risk events, such as delays in the supply of raw materials, are knowledge-related and partly due to an inability to understand the project and its surrounding environment (Flage et al., 2013). Such risk events can be managed by risk reduction countermeasures as distinct from pure parameter estimation to bring about improved forecasts of NPV and IRR.
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کلمات کلیدی:
Power Plant Engineering - Page 817 - Google Books Result https://books.google.com/books?isbn=146130427X Larry Drbal, Kayla Westra, Pat Boston - 2012 - Technology & Engineering Economic feasibility analyses are required by international lending agencies for power projects in developing countries but typically are not performed for ... [PDF]Study On the Feasibility Systems for the Construction of a ... - IJRASET www.ijraset.com/fileserve.php?FID=4696 International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering. Technology ... To do financial, economic & environmental feasibility of the project. To study ... 10. Improving risk assessment in financial feasibility of international ... en.ahau.findplus.cn/?h=articles&db=edselc&an=edselc.2... Translate this page Improving risk assessment in financial feasibility of international engineering ... (International Journal of Project Management, 1 February 2017, 35(2):204-211). International Development Project Appraisal, Execution Planning and ... https://books.google.com/books?isbn=2553015569 Joseph Martial Ribeiro - 2011 - Economic development projects The detailed project layout and basic engineering design, together with operation ... The project's financial feasibility relies on the ability to raise the appropriate ... The Law and Business of International Project Finance: A Resource ... https://books.google.com/books?isbn=1139468855 Scott L. Hoffman - 2007 - Law efficiencies and labor management; creation or expansion of local financial markets as new ... [4] Effect on Project Feasibility Several factors need to be considered in ... and contracts; an engineering evaluation of project design, construction, ... Niehuss' International Project Finance in a Nutshell https://books.google.com/books?isbn=1628105690 John Niehuss - 2010 - Law undertake more intensive feasibility work. 13 b. Feasibility Phase. ... phase include: • technical engineering studies, including preliminary cost estimates; ... a preliminary financial model for the project; • a financial feasibility analysis to provide a ...
