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عنوان فارسی مقاله:
پیش بینی خانواده: حفظ الگوهای سن
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Household forecasting: Preservation of age patterns
سال انتشار : 2016
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
3. Estimations
3.1. Lee–Carter We fitted Eq. (3) to the logit-fractions ξ2 to ξ6 by means of SVD, by age group (15–19, 20–24, . . . , 90–94, 95+) and sex, for the years 1996–2010. Fig. 2 plots the fit for the first and last years in the period. The fits are excellent, without exception. This is not surprising, because in each case (for instance men, m = 2) there are 17 age groups and 15 years of observations, making a total of 255 observations. These are modelled by 17 (for a(x)) + 17 (for b(x)) + 15 (for k(t)) = 49 parameters, which makes an extremely high parameters-to-observations ratio of 0.19. For later reference, note that the age profiles for m = 2 (COHMAR), m = 3 (MAR), and m = 4 (SIN0INST) cross between 1996 and 2010. The trend was downwards at some ages, but upwards at others. Fig. 3 plots annual estimates of the time index k(t) as dots, with an assumed RWD-process for k(t) as a straight line. The first row of the panel shows that living as a couple has become less frequent over the period, both for the combined household position of cohabiting and married (COHMAR; m = 2), and for the position married given that one lives with a partner (MAR; m = 3). Living alone or in an institution (SIN0INST; m = 4) has clearly become more frequent, particularly for men, which is driven by the increasing importance of living alone (SIN0; m = 5); cf. the second row of plots. There is no clear time pattern for lone fathers (SINp; third row), but lone mothers became more frequent from the beginning of the 21st century.
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کلمات کلیدی:
Dimension - Volumes 1-4 - Page lxii - Google Books Result https://books.google.com/books?id=yatUAAAAMAAJ 1955 - Architecture food preservation and preparation In the food preservation and preparation package ... gallons actual consumption per person in a three person household, plus a fifty per ... Because of the impossibility of forecasting precise individual patterns of ... tne '<i,cnen Pacl<age by the higher quantity needed to operate the laundry. Catalog of Copyright Entries. Third Series: 1967: January-June https://books.google.com/books?id=SCghAQAAIAAJ 1970 - Copyright House patterns. LADIES' HOME ... (R) Households reached by radio and television. RICHMOND ... Housing forecast. WOLFF ... How exercise can slow down advancing age. SAILS ... How to build and preserve executive wealth. CASEY ... New Scientist - 14 Aug 1986 - Page 48 - Google Books Result https://books.google.com/books?id=fetjwSi-rwMC Vol. 111, No. 1521 - Magazine Dennis Millington on the question of forecasts and the law Words that run and run ... whether from instinct, desire for self-preservation or mere curiosity about the ... time, that the "age of weather lore" should last well into the 20th century, but it did. ... The next summer, the families of the three men who perished in the storm ... Electricity forecasting on the individual household level enhanced ... journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0174098 by K Gajowniczek - 2017 Jump to Detecting household activity patterns - The discovered patterns of home appliance ... of the forecasts generated at the household level. Upper White Salmon River, Wild and Scenic River(s) (WSR) Study ... https://books.google.com/books?id=_JE2AQAAMAAJ 1997 Open space lands are those zoned as such or any lands whose preservation would ... This section describes the population, economy, and employment patterns in ... “t \pulation forecasts show that the county is estimated to have a population of ... Bureau of the Census 1982a) show that the median age of residents (30.3 ... demographic and economic forecasts for the charlotte region - NCDOT https://www.ncdot.gov/projects/.../ICEAppendixHDemEcoForcastsCharlotteRegOCR.pdf by TR Hammer - 2003 - Cited by 2 - Related articles Demographic and economic forecasts have been obtained for the Charlotte region ... because upper-income households confer desirability upon residential .... metropolitan areas exhibit the same spatial patterns at a given point in time, ... and the Census Bureau's long-term projections ofthe U.S. population by age and sex.
