دانلود رایگان مقاله لاتین جمع سپاری در مقابل روش دلفی از سایت الزویر
عنوان فارسی مقاله:
یافتن آینده: جمع سپاری در مقابل روش دلفی
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Finding the future: Crowdsourcing versus the Delphi technique
سال انتشار : 2016
برای دانلود رایگان مقاله جمع سپاری در مقابل روش دلفی اینجا کلیک نمایید.
بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
2. What is Delphi?
The Delphi technique, a method for polling a pool of experts, gets its name from the ancient oracle of Delphi. People brought questions to Delphi from all over ancient Greece in search for answers from the priestesses of Apollo. The usually cryptic answers predicted future events–—whether a farmer should plant his crop or not or whether an empire should go to war and what the outcome would be. As a forecasting tool, the Delphi technique had its origins in the RAND Corporation in the 1950s, when the U.S. government was trying to estimate Soviet nuclear capacity. The corporation’s objective was to develop a technique to obtain the most reliable consensus of a group of experts (Helmer & Dalkey, 1962). It focused on tasks where reliable objective data was not available and must be estimated and trend analysis techniques could not be applied. Linstone and Turoff (1975) describe Delphi as a method for structuring a group communication process, allowing a group of individuals to address a complex problem collectively. In a typical Delphi process, a group of experts in a particular field is polled on an issue of interest. A convenience sample of experts is used rather than an inferential survey; the emphasis is on expertise rather than on statistical representation. These individuals are asked to give their best estimates of uncertain events and phenomena on criteria, such as its importance in the future; the likelihood of its occurrence; and the potential impact on an organization, an industry, a country, or even the world. Their responses are then pooled and an aggregate response is calculated on each issue. The Delphi technique’s strength lies in providing a mechanism for these experts to converge what might have begun as a diverse range of opinions to a narrower and more actionable range of consensus opinions so that in a second round, each expert is informed of the pooled group estimate on each issue and reminded of their own prior answer. They are then invited to reassess their judgment in light of the group perspective. This process is then reiterated in following rounds. Typically, groups achieve a broad consensus over three rounds, with some exercises not converging until the fifth round.
برای دانلود رایگان مقاله جمع سپاری در مقابل روش دلفی اینجا کلیک نمایید.
کلمات کلیدی:
New RAND Research System Gathers, Analyzes Expert Opinions ... https://www.rand.org/news/press/2011/06/14.html Jun 14, 2011 - Researchers have developed a new method of eliciting and ... as the Delphi method, the Nominal Group Technique and crowdsourcing that are ... Encyclopedia of Information Science and Technology, Third Edition https://books.google.com/books?isbn=1466658894 Khosrow-Pour, Mehdi - 2014 - Computers K. K K Knowledge Sharing and Crowdsourcing as an Enterprise Opportunity ... The newest Delphi technique is a web-based communication structure ... Delphi method - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method Jump to Delphi vs. prediction markets - The Delphi method is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, ... Scilit | Article - Finding the future: Crowdsourcing versus the Delphi ... www.scilit.net/article/10.1016/j.bushor.2016.11.007 Finding the future: Crowdsourcing versus the Delphi technique. Andrew Flostrand. Published: 1 December 2016. by Elsevier. in Business Horizons. Business ... Current Trends in Web Engineering, ICWE 2010 Workshops: 10th ... https://books.google.com/books?isbn=3642169848 Florian Daniel, Federico Michele Facca - 2010 - Business & Economics Rowe, G., Wright, G.: The delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and ... New York (2004) Collaborative Workforce, Business Process Crowdsourcing as ...
