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عنوان فارسی مقاله:
نوآوری ها و محدودیت ها در روش های پیش بینی تغییرات زیست محیطی جهانی
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Innovations and limits in methods of forecasting global environmental change
سال انتشار : 2016
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مقدمه انگلیسی مقاله:
1. Introduction
How might the activities of human civilization drive changes in the Earth system during the 21st century and beyond? Projections of future environmentalstates are inherently constrained by imperfect knowledge and systemic uncertainties in the drivers of change (Clark et al., 2001). As the famous aphorism goes, all models are wrong, but some are useful (Box, 1979). Forecasts of environmental change are useful in helping planners trade off the consequences of, and opportunities offered by, alternative future scenarios (Loftus, Cohen, Long, & Jenkins, 2015). Forecasts offer decision makers a way to anticipate the response of complex systems to chronic stressors or disturbance, and can permit the evaluation of realistic development pathways to improve conservation benefit (Ausubel, 2000; Leadley, Pereira, & Alkemade, 2010; Sala et al., 2000). There are many uses for scenarios: here we focus primarily on their application to conservation management, ecology, and their relation to other planning outcomessuch economic development. In this context, the development of ‘what if?’ scenarios can aid in identifying critical ‘pressure points’ and flexible ‘levers’ for policy, thereby expanding the design space and opportunities for global conservation while balancing the concessions between the drive towards equitable human prosperity and the vital need to conserve as much of our rich natural history and biodiversity as possible. Forecasting should be based on a robust causal framework. One useful heuristic for conceptualising the linkages between human activities and environmental transformation is the driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework (Omann, Stocker, & Jäger, 2009). Drivers, including population, consumption, and technology, determine the aggregate amount of ‘pressures’ (although such a structure lacks explicit consideration of the role of governance and other aspects of institutional behaviour that influence the drivers in this framework). Pressures are defined as physical interventions in the environment, and include, for example, land-use change (due to expanding areas of cropland, pasture, biofuels, plantation forests, and built-up land), emissions of greenhouse gases, water extraction, and pollution of air and water (Foley et al., 2005; MEA, 2005; Rands et al., 2010). These pressures alter the state of environmental variables (like the distribution of habitats, or the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere), with attendant impacts on biodiversity (species and populations), in the form of changing abundance, altered geographical distributions, and extinctions (Brook, Sodhi, & Bradshaw, 2008). Responses are the actions taken by humans to address these problems. Forecasting possible future pathways of biodiversity change (impacts) requires understanding – and modelling – each prior step in this causal chain. Conservation science has developed and validated a rich set of theories and methods to understand and predict the impacts of various human pressures, including population viability analyses, speciesarea relationships and coupled niche-population models (Brook et al., 2000; Ibánez ˜ et al., 2006; Botkin et al., 2007; Lacy et al., 2013). Conservation science has, however, made less progress on modelling the connections between drivers and pressures. By contrast, in the physical sciences, computer simulations of the Earth System are now routinely used to project emissions of greenhouse gases, the resultant climate change, and its associated risks and impacts (Hansen et al., 2007; Lenton et al., 2008; Fordham, Wigley, & Brook, 2012). And in the socio-economic realm, integrated assessment models are used to summarize diverse inputs on complex problems such as multi-regional energy projections (Ostrom, 2009; Golub et al., 2012). Despite the progress outlined above, there remains considerable work to do in developing the theoretical and applied tools needed to project and optimize human development pathways to minimize biodiversity loss from climate change, land-use change, and other pressures. Local interventions like protected areas and payments for ecosystem services can safeguard some of the most valuable elements of biodiversity and ecosystem integrity (Mace, Norris, & Fitter, 2012). Yet they do little to mitigate the overall level of human pressures, since this is governed primarily by changing patterns of consumption (e.g., demand for material resources) and implementation of new technology (e.g., affecting environmental impacts per unit of production) (Ausubel, 2000; Andam, Ferraro, Pfaff, Sanchez-Azofeifa, & Robalino, 2008; Butchart et al., 2010; Clark, Boakes, McGowan, Mace, & Fuller, 2013). If the hypothesis that technology is a driver (rather than simply a consequence) of social/governance pressures holds true, then the success of biodiversity
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کلمات کلیدی:
Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental Change science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/292/5515/281.full.pdf?sid=acfc7b5d-cb4e... a means of identifying clock gene defects in patients ... Stimulation procedures using ET-1 ... population will be a major driver of global environmental change. [PDF]Forecasting for environmental decision making - ScholarlyCommons repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1006&context=marketing... by JS Armstrong - 1999 - Cited by 12 - Related articles environmental forecasting are often long term, which means that large changes .... of global warming while others believe that its effects would be beneficial. ... the forecasts arc undesirable, then one might change the plan, which, in turn, could ... WO/2012/005532 GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE FORECAST ... https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=WO2012005532 Jan 12, 2012 - The present invention relates to a global environmental change forecast system and a forecast method thereof. One embodiment of the present ... 7 Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change | Global ... https://www.nap.edu/read/5992/chapter/8 Improving methods for decision making about global change. ...... to interannual climate variability, thus increasing the usefulness of forecasts on that timescale ... 5 Problems of Theory and Method | Global Environmental Change ... https://www.nap.edu/read/1792/chapter/7 Global Environmental Change offers a strategy for combining the efforts of ... These types of models have many faults: they often do not produce clear forecasts ... New paper published in Global Environmental Change – Dr. Austin ... web.uri.edu/abecker/new-paper-published-in-global-environmental-change/ Existing methods to forecast resource demand and capacity do not consider this phenomenon of a global change affecting many localities and the resulting ...
