دانلود رایگان مقاله لاتین عیین کمیت نقاط کور در قضاوت اجرایی از سایت الزویر
عنوان فارسی مقاله:
تعیین کمیت نقاط کور و سیگنال های ضعیف در قضاوت اجرایی: ادغام سازمان یافته قضاوت متخصص در روند توسعه سناریو
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Quantifiying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgment: A structured integration of expert judgment into the scenario development process
سال انتشار : 2017
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
2. Expert judgment in scenario planning
The scenario planning method has been described widely in the literature (e.g. Schoemaker, 1995; Schwenker & Wulf, 2013). The most widely used and analyzed technique for scenario development is the so-called intuitive logics approach, which develops scenarios based on important driving forces that are aggregated in the two-by-two matrix used to derive the scenarios (Schwartz, 1996; Van der Heijden, Bradfield, Cairns, & Wright, 2002). Recently, a wide range of different methodologies, such as the antifragile methodology (Derbyshire & Wright, 2014), backcasting (Dreborg, 1996) and the backwards logic approach (Wright & Goodwin, 2009), have been introduced in the literature in order to overcome the limitations that are inherent in the intuitive logics approach (Goodwin & Wright, 2010; Wright, Bradfield, & Cairns, 2013). While these approaches are all based on distinct designs and approaches, they share the common goals of developing more flexible strategies that will allow organizations to counteract uncertainty (Schoemaker, 1995), and ultimately improving the quality of strategic decisions in organizations (Meissner & Wulf, 2013; Schwenker & Wulf, 2013). Scenario planning processes in organizations rely strongly upon input and judgment from experts (Goodwin & Wright, 2010). Thus, the comprehensive elicitation and structuring of expert judgment can help to avoid biased evaluations and inertia in the process (Kahneman & Lovallo, 1993; Tripsas & Gavetti, 2000). In contrast, a failure to integrate such advice properly can lead to blind spots and weak signals that can reduce the quality of the planning process (Chermack, 2004; Schoemaker, 1993; Schoemaker et al., 2013).
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Quantifiying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgment: A ... www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207015001193 by P Meissner - 2017 - Cited by 1 - Related articles Jan 20, 2016 - Quantifiying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgment: A structured integration of expert judgment into the scenario development ... Quantifiying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgment: A ... https://www.researchgate.net/.../291356655_Quantifiying_blind_spots_and_weak_signal... Quantifiying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgment: A structured integration of expert judgment into the scenario development process on ... Recent International Journal of Forecasting Articles - Elsevier https://www.journals.elsevier.com/international-journal-of-forecasting/recent-articles Jan 9, 2017 - Quantifiying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgment: A structured integration of expert judgment into the scenario development ... [PDF]Scenario Insights: March 2016 - HHL Center for Strategy and Scenario ... www.scenarioplanning.eu/fileadmin/pdf/Scenario_Insights-_March_2016.pdf change in the future. Enjoy exploring our newsletter! Quantifying Blind Spots and Weak Signals in executive Judgment. Expert judgment is a crucial input in most ... International Journal of Forecasting - Statistics Portal // Luxembourg - I www.statistiques.public.lu › Home › Publications May 26, 2017 - 230-243; MEISSNER Philip, BRANDS Christian, WULF Torsten - Quantifiying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgment: A structured ... Philip Meissner - Google Scholar Citations scholar.google.de/citations?user=NWWqBKwAAAAJ&hl=de Translate this page University of Marburg - uni-marburg.de Debiasing illusion of control in individual judgment: the role of internal and external advice ... Quantifiying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgment: A ...
