دانلود رایگان مقاله لاتین تصمیمات مدیریت موجودی از سایت الزویر
عنوان فارسی مقاله:
اندازه گیری اعتماد بیش از حد به تصمیمات مدیریت موجودی
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Measuring overconfidence in inventory management decisions
سال انتشار : 2016
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
2. Facets of overconfidence
The concept of overconfidence is an umbrella under which three main psychological effects have been gathered, namely overprecision (or miscalibration), overplacement, and overestimation (Moore and Healy, 2008). Overconfidence as overprecision refers to the systematic underestimation of the variance of a relevant measure affecting performance (demand, costs, etc.) (Soll and Klayman, 2004; Glaser and Weber, 2007). Conversely, the term overplacement, or betterthan-average effect, applies when the decision maker considers herself to be better than others (Alicke and Govorun, 2005; Larrick et al., 2007; Moore and Healy, 2008). Overestimation holds when the decision maker expresses unreasonable optimism about her performance or chances of success (Griffin and Tversky, 1992), and ability to control (Presson and Benassi, 1996; Thompson et al., 1998). Over-precise managers underrate the volatility of future cash flows (Shefrin, 2001), exhibit higher trading volumes (Odean, 1998), overweight private signals (Gervais and Goldstein, 2007), and choose a longer-term debt structure (Ben-David et al., 2007). These results entail that mis-calibrated managers estimate future unknowns with probability distributions that are too narrow, either because they overrate their ability to predict the future or because they underrate the volatility of random events (Ben-David et al., 2010). Overconfidence as overplacement of one's capabilities has been investigated by Malmendier and Tate (2008), who find that overconfident CEOs engage more frequently in unsuccessful mergers and acquisitions. Hribar and Yang (2011) show that overconfident CEOs tend to issue earnings forecasts in the form of point estimates rather than in intervals. Glaser and Weber (2007) find that financial analysts who consider themselves better than average place more orders. Overestimation of one's chances of success influences entry into competitive markets (Camerer and Lovallo, 1999). With reference to entrepreneurial venture performance, Lowe and Ziedonis (2006) find that, consistently with the overestimation bias, start-ups continue unsuccessful development efforts for longer periods than do established firms. While overprecision has been the focus of many studies, including one in the supply and purchasing management discipline (Ren and Croson, 2013), there is a relative paucity of research addressing overestimation and overplacement in business studies, and no study in the area of supply and purchasing. Therefore, this study focuses on the overestimation and overplacement of buyers within a supply chain. In competitive environments, where decision makers need to assess their performance not only in absolute terms but also in relation to other competitors, these two dimensions are of particular interest.
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