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عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Evaluating the role of disease importation in the spatiotemporal transmission of indigenous dengue outbreak
سال انتشار : 2016
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مقدمه انگلیسی مقاله:
1. Introduction
Dengue virus is a vector-borne pathogen that is transmitted by contact between vectors and susceptible hosts (Galvani & May 2005). The primary vectors of dengue are the Ae. aegypti and Ae. Albopictus mosquitoes in Taiwan (CDC Taiwan, 2012), and the dengue virus is transmitted to human through the bites of infected female mosquitoes that have passed the extrinsic incubation period of 8e12 days (WHO, 2009). Since the 1970s, dengue fever has been gradually spreading throughout Southeast Asia, and its transmission involves interactions among carriers, mosquitoes, and healthy humans. As of 2010, Asia bore 70% of the global burden of disease, with 60 million infections (Bhatt et al., 2013). Over the last 30 years, the spread of dengue has been facilitated by the growing convenience and popularity of air travel (Gubler, 2011). Stoddard et al. (2009) claimed that human movement is a key behavioral factor in many vector-borne disease systems because it influences exposure to vectors and thus the transmission of pathogens (Stoddard et al., 2009). An abundance of vectors does not necessarily lead to high disease prevalence and epidemic stability. Human movement on different scales will influence patterns of disease diffusion. More frequent travel and more airports that experience international flights, including in dengue-endemic regions, lead to infected travelers returning to non-endemic countries with capable vectors (Aedes aegypti or Aedes albopictus) and a proper environment, initiating local dengue epidemics and increasing the public health burden (Quam et al., 2015; Semenza et al., 2014; Tatem et al., 2012). Therefore, it is important to explore how imported cases of dengue fever transmitted by returning travelers influence local epidemics or the emergence of indigenous cases. Many studies have identified the importance of travelers in dense airline networks as an early warning of the increasing risk of local outbreaks in epidemic regions. Wilder-Smith and Gubler proposed one important concept called “Travelers as Sentinels” (Wilder-Smith & Gubler, 2008), which was based on the GeoSentinel surveillance network, a clinician-based network. The concept divided regions where outbreaks occur into endemic and epidemic regions and suggested that infected returning travelers were particularly important to seasonality and annual trends of dengue fever in epidemic regions (Schwartz et al., 2008). Infected travelers have increased in number, thus increasing the risk of importing the virus and leading to severe epidemics and an increased burden to public health. Travelers can be considered sentinels, and observing travelers can help identify risk factors surrounding the local occurrence of dengue fever. Therefore, sentinels are important for epidemic regions to prevent local outbreaks. Huang et al. (2012) built the Vector-Borne Disease Airline Importation Risk Tool (VBD-AIR), a web-based GIS platform for monitoring and assessing the importation risk of vector-borne disease into countries by global air travelers (Huang et al., 2012). While VBD-AIR analyzes the global importation risk of vectorborne disease, monitoring spatial-temporal distribution of indigenous dengue cases is also crucial for the epidemic prevention and control. Delmelle, Zhu, Tang, and Casas (2014) constructed a webbased geospatial toolkit (OnTAPP) to monitor the spatial patterns of the local outbreak of dengue epidemics (Delmelle et al., 2014). Previous studies conducted statistical analysis on the spatialtemporal patterns of the local cases to explore the possible factors of the occurrence of dengue fever, including the built environment factors (Vazquez-Prokopec, Kitron, Montgomery, Horne, & Ritchie, 2010; Wen, Lin, Teng, & Chang, 2015), socio-economic factors (Hsueh, Lee, & Beltz, 2012; Machado-Machado, 2012), human movement factors (Stoddard et al., 2009; Wen, Lin, & Fang, 2012), and meteorological factors (Machado-Machado, 2012; Shang et al., 2010). The factors that influence both the importation risk and the indigenous distribution patterns were studied thoroughly in previous articles, however, the connection between the occurrence of imported cases and indigenous cases were simplified in previous literature, especially the influence of socioeconomic factors on dengue importation risk (Shang et al., 2010). Taiwan is a dengue-epidemic region and is closely connected with Southeast Asia through air travel. For an epidemic region, imported cases are a precondition of indigenous cases (Schwartz et al., 2008). According to Shu et al. (2009) and Huang et al. (2012), molecular epidemiological data showed that Taiwan is an epidemic region for dengue fever in areas where introduced virus strains triggered local emergence events. Carriers who were infected outside of Taiwan transmitted virus strains to local residents via local mosquitoes. Imported cases are laboratoryconfirmed dengue cases with a travel history to endemic countries within 14 days before the date of dengue onset (CDC Taiwan, 2012). Because imported cases could be a precondition to trigger the local emergence of dengue fever, understanding the relationship between imported cases and indigenous cases helps us to identify the characteristics of local epidemics and to formulate prevention strategies that efficiently allocate public health resources. More importantly, exploring how such tropical diseases shift in the epidemic region and interact with local conditions is relevant to a major focus of public health research: the localization of tropical diseases in subtropical or temperate zones with global warming. Shang et al. (2010) showed that imported dengue is able to serve as an initial facilitator, or spark, for domestic epidemics. The study also discovered that the number of imported cases did not influence the number of indigenous dengue cases; imported cases only influenced the onset of a dengue epidemic, with a time lag of up to fourteen weeks (Shang et al., 2010). Local epidemics evolve independently in favorable environmental conditions with an appropriate vector population, but they must be initiated by imported cases. However, the spatial relationship between imported and indigenous cases has not been adequately addressed. Imported cases that are located among different demographic and socioeconomic townships may have different capacities of diffusion that affect the transmitting amount, the risk of transmission, and the transmission speed. For example, the townships with higher population density would have more susceptible host exposed to the disease (Khalid & Ghaffar, 2015), and the townships with less average income (Mudrray, Quam, & Wilder-Smith, 2013) might have more suitable breeding sites for mosquitoes (Gubler, 2002). Moreover, people frequently move to the city for daily activities, and back to their residence with high population density or low income at night, thus it could increase the probability for the dengue outbreak and spreading (Adams & Kappan, 2009; Wen et al., 2012). Therefore, it is important to quantify the spatial diffusion of imported cases in terms of different socioeconomic factors and the time lag from the introduction of imported cases to local emergence under different socioeconomic conditions. The objectives of this study are to clarify the role of imported cases in initiating domestic epidemics, to examine the spatial-temporal effects between imported cases and indigenous cases, and to explore the transmission range and the transmission speed by estimating the risk of diffusion from imported cases in a township and analyzing the time lag between the occurrence of imported cases and the appearance of indigenous cases.
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کلمات کلیدی:
Inferring the Spatio-temporal Patterns of Dengue Transmission from ... journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0004633 by G Zhu - 2016 - Cited by 3 - Related articles Apr 22, 2016 - Author Summary Dengue transmission is a spatio-temporal process with ... significant roles in shaping the dengue outbreak and the patterns of its spread. ...... Spatiotemporal analysis of indigenous and imported dengue fever ... Evaluating the role of disease importation in the spatiotemporal ... https://wcchin.github.io/findings/JAPG_76/ Wen, T. H., Tsai, C. T., & Chin, W. C. B. (2016). Evaluating the role of disease importation in the spatiotemporal transmission of indigenous dengue outbreak. Spatiotemporal analysis of indigenous and imported dengue fever ... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22691405 by Z Li - 2012 - Cited by 31 - Related articles Jun 12, 2012 - Spatiotemporal analysis of indigenous and imported dengue fever cases ... Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China. Evaluating the role of disease importation in the spatiotemporal ... www.academia.edu/.../Evaluating_the_role_of_disease_importation_in_the_spatiotem... Evaluating the role of disease importation in the spatiotemporal transmission of indigenous dengue outbreak. Wei Chien Benny Chin · Authors. W. Chin + 1. Dynamic spatiotemporal trends of imported dengue fever in Australia ... https://www.nature.com › Scientific Reports › Articles by X Huang - 2016 - Cited by 2 - Related articles Jul 27, 2016 - Dengue fever (DF) epidemics in Australia are caused by infected ... at particular risk of dengue transmission should competent mosquito vectors expand ... of intensive mosquito control, and competition from native mosquitoes. Analysis of heterogeneous dengue transmission in Guangdong in ... https://www.nature.com › Scientific Reports › Articles by Q Cheng - 2016 - Cited by 1 - Related articles Sep 26, 2016 - Guangdong experienced the largest dengue epidemic in recent history. ... Spatiotemporal analysis of indigenous and imported dengue fever ... Wen Tzai-Hung's Geospatial Research - National Taiwan University homepage.ntu.edu.tw/~wenthung/pub1.htm Wen TH, Tsai CT, Chin CB (2016), Evaluating the Role of Disease Importation in the Spatiotemporal Transmission of Indigenous Dengue Outbreak, Applied ...
