دانلود رایگان مقاله لاتین بی ثباتی زمانی وضعیت اقتصادی از سایت الزویر
عنوان فارسی مقاله:
سوگیری بی ثباتی زمانی و وضعیت اقتصادی
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Time varying biases and the state of the economy
سال انتشار : 2016
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
Hypothesis
2.3 (Persistent Bias). (i) If the bias caused by over-estimation or underestimation of the forecast is persistent in a relatively bad (good) state of the economy, then γ 0 α = 0 (γ 1 α = 0). (ii) If the bias caused by over-reaction or under-reaction to news is persistent in a relatively bad (good) state of the economy, then γ 0 β = 0 (γ 1 β = 0). A few points should be made regarding Hypothesis 2.3. First, the persistent bias in the relative state of the underlying economy can also be viewed as a kind of systematic bias, as documented by Fildes and Stekler (2002). Second, the proposed Hypothesis 2.3 differs somewhat from the recent work of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2012, CG hereafter). In CG’s model, even rational forecasters may produce forecast errors, owing to limitations of information. This information rigidity will be lessened as the underlying state lasts for longer. Thus, they argue that ‘‘forecast errors converge back to zero over time, as agent’s information sets progressively incorporate the new information’’. On the other hand, violations of Hypothesis 2.3 say that the forecast errors will converge back to zero over time as the biases disappear with the duration of the state, provided that the forecast is non-optimal; that is, the forecast biases still exist for finite lengths of the duration, which violates the idea of an optimal forecast.
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کلمات کلیدی:
Robust Longitudinal Rate Gyro Bias Estimation for Reliable Pitch ... https://books.google.com/books?isbn=054993555X Ryan M. Weisman - 2008 The state covariance matrix is a measure of how the states vary together and ... a wider range of bias values due to a time varying bias or modeling uncertainties. Essays on Asymmetric Loss and Learning in Macroeconomic Forecasting https://books.google.com/books?isbn=054975671X Sagarika Mishra - 2008 Notice, the pattern of variation of the time-varying bias is almost same for all ... to some extent and this element of judgment reflects the state of the economy. A State Dynamics Method for Integrated GPS/INS Navigation and Its ... https://books.google.com/books?isbn=0549929010 Fang-Cheng Chan - 2008 The IMU biases are included in the INS state vector to account for their time-varying properties which can be modeled by equation 3.21. As a result, the system ... Satellite Altimetry and Earth Sciences: A Handbook of Techniques and ... https://books.google.com/books?isbn=0080516580 Lee-Lueng Fu, Anny Cazenave - 2000 - Science Accuracy of the Estimated Total Sea-State Bias Although significant ... of the sea-state bias owing to the wide range of spatially- and temporally-varying sea-state ... Solid-state Microwave High-power Amplifiers https://books.google.com/books?isbn=1596933208 Franco Sechi, Marina Bujatti - 2009 - Electronic books to bias the gates of the active devices. If a negative ... The small-signal gain of FETs and MMICs can be adjusted, within a limited range, by varying the gate bias. Advances in Solid State Physics https://books.google.com/books?isbn=3540399704 Bernhard Kramer - 2004 - Science 11 shows photoluminescence spectra of a single such molecule for varying biases applied in reverse direction, so that leakage currents are suppressed.
