دانلود رایگان مقاله لاتین بررسی بهره پیش بینی تجدیدنظر از سایت الزویر
عنوان فارسی مقاله:
بهره قابل پیش بینی تجدیدنظر شده
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
The forecastability quotient reconsidered
سال انتشار : 2016
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
4. Choice of forecasting method
In the abstract of their paper, Hill et al. claimed that they forecasted the time series using ‘‘double exponential smoothing with a damped trend’’. However, this is not what they actually did. Since Brown (1963), double exponential smoothing (DES) has been defined in the literature as a single-parameter additive trend method. In fact, Hill et al. actually used Holt’s two-parameter additive trend method, and they did not damp the trend, despite what the abstract says. We note that the parameters of the Holt method can be constrained to make it equivalent to DES (Gardner, 1985), but it does not appear that the authors imposed such constraints. Hill et al. justify their choice of the Holt method by stating that: ‘‘In an extensive empirical study, Makridakis and Hibon (2000) showed that DES is as good as or better than any of the other forecasting methods’’. This statement is false. A number of other forecasting methods were more accurate than Holt’s in the M3 competition, both overall and at each individual forecast horizon. For example, the damped trend method of exponential smoothing was more accurate than Holt’s method, a finding that is consistent with a large body of empirical research (Gardner, 2006). It follows that there is no reason to use the Holt method to provide forecasts for any inventory system. If the number of parameters in the forecasting method is a concern, it is possible to use discounted least squares to formulate a two-parameter damped additive trend method, as in Gardner (1985).
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کلمات کلیدی:
DOC]Assoc www.mgmt.boun.edu.tr/images/stories/dokumanlar/cv_yavuz_acar_2016.doc Gardner E., and Acar Y. 2016, The Forecastability Quotient Reconsidered, International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcomming. Acar, Y., and Atadeniz, S. N. 2015 ... [PDF]Forecasting the forecastability quotient for inventory management isiarticles.com/bundles/Article/pre/pdf/46097.pdf Forecasting the forecastability quotient for inventory management. Arthur V. Hilla,∗, Weiyong Zhangb, Gerald F. Burchc a University of Minnesota, Supply Chain ... The forecastability quotient reconsidered - INFONA https://www.infona.pl/resource/bwmeta1...3a6e.../contributors?... Translate this page Zamknij. Serwis Infona wykorzystuje pliki cookies (ciasteczka). Są to wartości tekstowe, zapamiętywane przez przeglądarkę na urządzeniu użytkownika. Forecasting the forecastability quotient for inventory management ... 802561967.linuxzone73.grserver.gr.185-4-133-54.linuxzone73.grserver.gr/.../foreca... Jul 1, 2015 - The forecastability quotient reconsidered · Evaluating predictive count data distributions in retail sales forecasting · Modeling and forecasting ... SciLit | Article - The forecastability quotient reconsidered www.scilit.net/article/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.03.001 Oct 1, 2016 - Keywords: time series / forecastability quotient / quotient reconsidered / reconsidered Using / Holtâ / large sample / Hill ... International Journal of Forecasting latest issue now available ... https://forecasters.org/.../international-journal-of-forecasting-latest-issue-now-availabl... Sep 14, 2016 - What predicts US recessions? Weiling Liu, Emanuel Moench. The forecastability quotient reconsidered Everette Shaw Gardner Jr., Yavuz Acar.
