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عنوان فارسی مقاله:
آینده جنگ
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
The future of war
سال انتشار : 2016
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
2. Forms of collective violence
Nine kinds of traditional, collective violence will become increasingly popular, irredentist and balkenizing movements directed at the same goal of putting ethnic groups in closer cohesion with greater independence will flourish. There will be border conflicts, either skirmishes or outright wars between nations. Coup d'etat, the relatively peaceful turnover of head of state with little or extremely limited violence, will be common. Ethnic conflicts and civil war resulting from the expansion of either the coup d'etat, balkenizing and irredentist movements, or ethnic conflict will flourish. Terrorism, both internal and transnational, and civil unrest with substantial collective violence as we recently witnessed in Azerbaijan will be widespread. Finally, insurrectioncollective violence to change some policy of the central government, and different from civil war-will be seen in five continents. There will also be two new forms of violence. We anticipate that in the next decade several countries will go into a form of international receivership. Utter chaos with the total failure of central legal authority will force international collective action to move in to stabilize the situation. The likely and obvious candidates for this are Haiti, numerous minor South Pacific republics, and, most interesting to speculate about, Colombia. The second form of a new collective violence will involve some novel applications of nuclear materials. We see this in three distinct forms: The first is the distribution of radioactive materials in nonnuclear explosive devices by techniques varying from traditional bomb blasts to the equivalent of crop dusting to contaminate a population or a region. Second, we see an occasional weapon being lobbed by one small power at another small power. Since about a dozen countries now have nuclear weapons and materials, the abuse potential will shift from U.S.A.-U.S.S.R.-China to one of the other bomb holders. Finally, one can anticipate terrorist action destroying either a civil (nuclear power plant) or military (weapons facility) installation, thereby releasing large amounts of nuclear material.
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کلمات کلیدی:
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