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عنوان فارسی مقاله:
رفتار توده وار پیش بینی چرخه کسب و کار
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Herding behavior of business cycle forecasters
سال انتشار : 2016
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
3. Testing for forecaster herding
should be unbiased and the probability of it overshooting or undershooting the growth rate should be 0.5, independently of the forecasts of others. In contrast, if forecasts are biased because forecasters (anti-)herd, the published forecasts will differ from the efficient private forecast. As a result, the probability of it overshooting or undershooting the growth rate should be larger or smaller than 0.5 (Pierdzioch et al., 2010). In the case of forecaster herding, the published forecast deviates from the (unobservable) efficient private forecast because a forecaster follows the forecasts of others, measured in terms of the consensus forecast s˜i,t−1,t+k (the arithmetic mean forecast made by other forecasters).5 Thus, the published forecast is closer to the consensus forecast than the efficient private forecast. A published forecast that exceeds the consensus forecast is smaller than the efficient private forecast, leaving less room for forecast overshooting. Similarly, a published forecast that is smaller than the consensus forecast is larger than the efficient private forecast, leaving less room for forecast undershooting. Conversely, in the case of forecaster antiherding, a published forecast larger (smaller) than the consensus forecast is also larger (smaller) than the efficient private forecast, thus inflating the probability of overshooting (undershooting). The intuition motivating the test for forecaster (anti-) herding developed by Bernhardt et al. (2006) can be explained best by considering as a benchmark scenario a forecaster who forms an ‘‘efficient’’ private forecast of the future GDP growth rate. The efficient private forecast
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کلمات کلیدی:
Forecasting, Business Cycles, Monetary Economics | EDIRC/RePEc https://edirc.repec.org/cycles.html Forecasting, Business Cycles, Monetary Economics. Associations and Societies · Association for Modelling and Forecasting Economies in Transition - AMFET ... [PDF]Introduction to" Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting" www.nber.org/chapters/c7188.pdf by JH Stock - 1993 - Cited by 9 - Related articles the analysis of business cycles. This conference continues the long-standing involvement of the NBER with economic forecasting and the leading and coincident ... Definition of Cycle Forecasting - Small Business - Chron.com smallbusiness.chron.com › Business Planning & Strategy › Business Development For example, if the economy is nearing a recession, it might not be a good time to start a new company. Cycle forecasting is the process of making predictions ... Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, Stock, Watson press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/B/bo3645850.html The book Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, Edited by James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson is published by University of Chicago Press. How to Forecast the Business Cycles and Structural Trade ... - Coursera https://www.coursera.org/.../how-to-forecast-the-business-cycles-and-structural-trade-i... You can also see in this figure, just a few of the so called leading economic indicators, that forecasters use to try and predict movements in a business cycle. [PDF]Macroeconomic Forecasting using Business Cycle ... - Ard den Reijer www.reijer.net/ard/sciencepublications/dissertatie.pdf Macroeconomic Forecasting using. Business Cycle Leading Indicators. Macro-economisch voorspellen op basis van voorlopende conjunctuurindicatoren. Searches related to business cycle forecasters what are the two main phases of a business cycle business cycle forecasting methods business cycle economic indicators explanation of business cycle-leading coincidental and lagging indicators why is it difficult to explain the causes of business cycles three types of business-cycle indicators business cycles and economic indicators worksheet 10b acyclical business cycle
