دانلود رایگان مقاله لاتین شناسایی نقاط عطف چرخه کسب و کار از سایت الزویر
عنوان فارسی مقاله:
شناسایی نقاط عطف چرخه کسب و کار در زمان واقعی با کوانتیزاسیون برداری
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Identifying business cycle turning points in real time with vector quantization
سال انتشار : 2017
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
3. Real-time identification of turning points
In this section, we evaluate the performance of the LVQ classifier for the real-time identification of new US business cycle turning points over the period from November 1976 to July 2013, over which there were five complete NBER recession episodes, meaning five peaks and troughs. We evaluate both the accuracy and the speed with which turning points are identified, with the eventual NBER chronology serving as the standard for accuracy. 3.1. Data to be classified The data series that we use as inputs to the algorithm are the four monthly coincident series that are highlighted by the NBER in their decisions about the timing of US business cycle turning points, namely (1) growth in non-farm payroll employment (E), (2) growth in the industrial production index (I), (3) growth in real personal income excluding transfer receipts (P), and (4) growth in real manufacturing and trade sales (M). These series are the focus of the existing literature on the real-time identification of US business cycle turning points.10 The LVQ algorithm could easily be extended to consider larger numbers of indicators, with little increase in computational complexity. However, we restrict our attention to these four series in our primary analysis in order to maintain comparability with studies that use alternative approaches to identify turning points. We will consider the results from including additional series in Section 3.4.
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کلمات کلیدی:
CFA Digest : Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points in Real Time ... www.cfapubs.org/doi/full/10.2469/dig.v33.n3.1323 by M Chauvet - 2003 - Cited by 120 - Related articles The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announces the timing of turning points in the U.S. business cycle. NBER's method, however, is not ... Identifying business cycle turning points in real time - IDEAS/RePEc https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedawp/2002-27.html by M Chauvet - 2002 - Cited by 120 - Related articles In general, the models identify turning point dates in real-time that are close to the NBER dates. For both business cycle peaks and troughs, the models provide ... Identifying business cycle turning points in real time - IDEAS/RePEc https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedlrv/y2003imarp47-61nv.85no.2.html by M Chauvet - 2003 - Cited by 122 - Related articles Downloadable! This paper evaluates the ability of a statistical regime-switching model to identify turning points in U.S. economic activity in real time. The authors ... Dating Business Cycle Turning Points www.nber.org/papers/w11422 by M Chauvet - 2005 - Cited by 198 - Related articles This paper discusses formal quantitative algorithms that can be used to identify business cycle turning points. An intuitive, graphical derivation of these ... [PDF]Dating Business Cycle Turning Points - UC San Diego Department of ... econweb.ucsd.edu/~jhamilto/chauvet_hamilton_may_05.pdf by M Chauvet - Cited by 198 - Related articles dating business cycle turning points, which we call the “quarterly real-time GDP-based ... Given the importance to the public at large of identifying where the. Searches related to Identifying business cycle turning points two key phases of the business cycle are quizlet the intertemporal substitution effect of a change in the price level results from a
