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عنوان فارسی مقاله:

سازمان های آتش در آمازون: نقش نسبی بیمه نامه و بارندگی


عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:

Fire regimes in Amazonia: The relative roles of policy and precipitation


سال انتشار : 2016



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مقدمه انگلیسی مقاله:

1. Introduction

The mastery of fire was a turning point in our species’ biological and technological evolution and is intricately linked to the onset of the Anthropocene (Steffen et al., 2007; Glikson, 2013). Natural and anthropogenic fires have long played a pivotal role in terrestrial and atmospheric system processes (Bowman et al., 2009) but encroachment of modern agriculture into tropical forests has increased the quantity and frequency of fire in these ecosystems (Neves et al., 2004; Bush et al., 2008). Now, with global initiatives set to reduce carbon emissions from land change (Kollmuss et al., 2008), policymakers are under increased pressure to not only curb deforestation and forest degradation, but also combat fire. Brazil is notable in this regard because its Amazonian forests hold close to 35% of the world’s tropical forest carbon and produces some of the largest emissions from forest loss (Saatchi et al., 2011; Baccini et al., 2012). The Brazilian Amazon has also been hailed as a success story in the reduction of deforestation rates in the last decade, attributed in large partto the successful implementation of public policies (Soares-Filho et al., 2010; Arima et al., 2014; Cisneros et al., 2015). Given the strong relationship between deforestation and anthropogenic fires, the same steep reductions in fire were expected. Instead, fire numbers fluctuated greatly from year to year, possibly influenced by intervening abiotic factors. The objective of this article is to tackle this issue and examine the main factors that drive the current fire regime in Brazil’s Amazonia. Specifically, we examine the relative roles of abiotic factors and anti-deforestation policies in determining the amount of forest fires, while controlling for other potential biophysical, economic, and institutional correlates.1 To pursue this objective, we first discuss the relationship between deforestation, agricultural expansion, and fire in the basin, while acknowledging the roleof climatic factors and policy initiatives to date. Next, we show evidence that fire and deforestation rates decoupled from each other after 2007, a main motivation for our analyses. We then present statistical analyses that reveal the extent to which two factors—(1) recent policy measures and (2) deviations in regional precipitation—have affected fire in the Amazon, both in terms of total number of fire events and burned area. Finally, we translate these results into practical significance for policymakers, whose engagement in mitigation strategies may be offset by the precipitation and climate trends of the future.



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کلمات کلیدی:

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