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عنوان فارسی مقاله:
تغییرات آب و هوایی در مقابل رانش زیست محیطی: بررسی 13 سال از حجم معاملات در یک جامعه پروانه ای
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Climate change versus ecological drift: Assessing 13 years of turnover in a butterfly community
سال انتشار : 2016
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مقدمه انگلیسی مقاله:
1. Introduction
The detection of the effects of long-term forces on ecological communities is a major challenge for ecologists today. Many studies document the northward (or altitudinal)shift or expansion of species ranges (Holbrook, Russell, & Stephens 1997; Sagarin, Barry, Gilman, & Baxter 1999; Meshinev, Apostolova,&Koleva 2000;Walther et al. 2002; Poloczanska et al. 2013). To make the connection with climate change, a common approach is to show that the observed changes in a community over time are consistent with the expected changes under a projected scenario. Given the possible bias toward publishing of studies that confirm the effects of climate change, it is important to keep in mind the statistical significance of the results. The main complication is that ecological communities are constantly changing due to demographic stochasticity (ecological drift), even when environmental and other conditions are static (Vellend 2010). Hence, before accepting any alternative hypothesis one must show that the observed changes cannot be explained by ecological drift alone (null hypothesis). This is analogous to the attribution problem of global warming itself (Halley & Kugiumtzis 2011). The aim of this article is to: (a) emphasize the important role of ecological drift in the evolution of ecological communities, (b) demonstrate how the neutral model can be used as a null model to simulate ecological drift and test the null hypothesis and (c) apply thisto a community of butterflies for which there is indication of climate-induced changes in community composition. The neutral theory of biodiversity was introduced in ecology by Hubbell (2001) with the aim of explaining community composition as the result of demographic stochasticity and dispersal. The model produces realistic ecological patterns based on a minimum set of assumptions, including equal reproductive and dispersal ability for all species. This has proven a very successful approximation to reality and a valuable null model (Hubbell 2001; Chave, Muller-Landau, & Levin 2002; Volkov, Banavar, Hubbell, & Maritan 2003; Halley & Iwasa 2011; Rosindell, Hubbell, He, Luke, & Etienne 2012). Although there are other models of community drift, the neutral model pioneersin one important aspect: apart from demographic stochasticity, it takes into account the stochasticity due to dispersal limitation. Because of dispersal limitation, the composition of local samples differs from that of the regional community, thus the model incorporates the sampling effects that arise when local samples are drawn from a community (see Etienne and Alonso 2007). The neutral model has been used to assess species temporal turnover in real communities (e.g. Leigh, Wright, Herre, & Putz 1993;McGill,Hadly,&Maurer 2005;Gilbert,Laurance, Leigh,&Nascimento 2006; Dornelas et al. 2014). Suchmethods assume that the real community drift at equilibrium is well approximated by neutral drift. Thus, any deviation from the model predictions is attributed to external forces causing systematic drift. Butterflies are an excellent group for examining the effects of global change on populations. They react faster than other groups (Devictor et al. 2012) and due to their short life cycle, changes in their distribution, abundances and community composition can be visible over a short time period (Robinson,Armstead,&Bowers 2012).The best documented effect on butterfly populations as climate warmsis geographic range expansions to cooler areas, toward higher latitudes or altitudes (Parmesan and Yohe 2003). There is evidence that the rate at which species are invading from low altitudes or latitudes is faster than the rate at which the inhabitant species are receding poleward (Sagarin et al. 1999; Walther et al. 2002). As a result, species related to warm conditions begin to invade ecological communities (Barry, Baxter, Sagarin, & Gilman 1995; Wilson, Gutiérrez, Gutiérrez, & Monserrat 2007; Dapporto and Dennis 2013). Yet, there is a considerable asymmetry in the degree and direction of these changes among different groups and localities (Devictor et al. 2012). Here, we use the neutral model to assess the observed changes in a butterfly community in a period of 13 years. We compare the turnover of the real communities with the turnover expected by neutral drift. If the observed turnover is significant (i.e. not explained by neutral drift), the temperature-rise effect is plausible and can be further assessed. If, on the contrary, the model explains the observed turnover, the temperature-rise effect hypothesis is not valid. We compare our results with those of Zografou et al. (2014), where statistical methods were used to reveal significant changes in the same butterfly community. Note that our approach is fundamentally different from that of Zografou et al. (2014). While statistical tests can reveal significant changes in community composition on the basis of observed or assumed distributions, they do not take into account community dynamics. This means that a change termed significant by a statistical testmight be an expected change under ecological drift (and the opposite). Based on the above, we expect our approach to refine and complement the results ofZografou et al. (2014) by revealing as “significant” only the changes that are not explained by ecological drift.
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کلمات کلیدی:
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