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عنوان فارسی مقاله:
یک توضیح صرفه جو از سوگیری مشاهده شده هنگام پیش بینی عملکرد خود شخص
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
A parsimonious explanation of observed biases when forecasting one’s own performance
سال انتشار:2016
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
2. Literature review
Studies of individuals’ abilities to forecast their performances on tests and examinations have considered forecasts of two types: (i) predictions of marks, scores or grades (e.g., Clayson, 2005; Kennedy et al., 2002; Miller & Geraci, 2011); and (ii) predictions of the percentile in which the mark score or grade would lie (e.g., Burson et al., 2006; Krueger & Mueller, 2002; Kruger & Dunning, 1999). A common finding has been that, while the low performers have produced forecasts that are too high, the high performers have tended to under-forecast their scores or percentile positions (Kennedy et al., 2002; Kruger & Dunning, 1999). Similar patterns of the unskilled overestimating and the skilled underestimating their skill levels have also been recorded in domains such as driving (Kunkel, 1971), reading (Maki, Jonas, & Kallod, 1994), and social skills (Fagot & O’Brien, 1994). A third finding has been that these errors in forecasts are asymmetric, in that they tend to be greater for the low performers (Krueger & Mueller, 2002; Kruger & Dunning, 1999). The reasons underlying these findings have generated much controversy, with a range of alternative explanations being put forward. There are a number of factors that may lead to individuals over-forecasting their test performances. One wellknown phenomenon is the ‘‘above average effect’’, where most people perceive their skills to be above average. This has been observed in areas ranging from football (Felson, 1981) to business management and leadership (Larwood & Whittaker, 1977). While the effect is associated with statistically illogical judgments, Krueger and Mueller (2002) argue that, from an individual perspective, such optimism can be rational. For example, optimism can also be a valuable source of motivation. However, this does not explain directly why the forecasts are regressive, in that the optimism is only associated with low performances. Nor does it explain directly the observed asymmetry in the errors. One partial explanation is that test scores and percentiles are bounded (e.g., between 0 and 100), so that the higher one’s actual score is, the less scope there is for over-forecasting it. A more elaborate explanation is provided by Kruger and Dunning (2002), who argue that unskilled individuals lack metacognitive skills. Their lack of skill in a particular domain is associated with a lack of skill in assessing their ability in that domain. If a person is incompetent, they also lack the ability to realise their incompetence (see also Ehrlinger, Johnson, Banner, Dunning, & Kruger, 2008). More recently, Dunning (2013) has presented several examples of unskilled individuals being unaware of their lack of skill, and mentions various implications for organisations, such as the difficulties of recognising expertise in groups (Bonner, Baumann, & Dalal, 2002; Cone & Dunning, 2011), a reluctance to seek advice (Bonaccio & Dalal, 2006), and the evaluation of feedback for the purpose of self-improvement (Mobius, Niederle, Niehaus, & Rosenblat, 2011; Sheldon, Ames, & Dunning, 2011). However, Kruger and Dunning’s (2002) metacognitive hypothesis does not explain why high achievers often produce forecasts of their percentiles that are too low. For this, they turn to the false consensus effect (Ross, Greene, & House, 1977), and argue that the high achievers assume their peers to be as skilled as they themselves. Hence, they tend to assess their ability as being closer to the middle of the range of performances, when their true percentiles are higher. However, it is not exactly clear why this bias should be peculiar to high achievers. Also, it would not explain any tendency of high achievers to under-forecast their scores, as distinct from their percentiles. Although Kruger and Dunning did find that high achievers forecasted their scores reasonably accurately, other studies have found this bias to occur with forecasts of scores as well (Clayson, 2005; Miller & Geraci, 2011).
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کلمات کلیدی:
Information Sampling and Adaptive Cognition https://books.google.com/books?isbn=0521831598 Klaus Fiedler, Peter Juslin - 2006 - Psychology THE SAMPLING APPROACH TO JUDGMENT BIASES A different ... samples of observations drawn from the population of observations to which they refer. ... a parsimonious explanation for a variety of well-established judgment biases such ... Research In Psychology Methods and Design https://books.google.com/books?isbn=1119330440 C. James Goodwin, Kerri A. Goodwin - 2016 - Psychology ... 266 L Laboratory (vs. field) research, 63–66 Laboratory observation studies, 293 ... 261, 280 Line graph use, 203–205 Literary Digest (biased survey), 258 Little ... t test Paper (research presentation), 395 Parsimonious (explanation), 77–78, ... Diet, Health, and Status Among the Pasión Maya: A Reappraisal of the ... https://books.google.com/books?isbn=0826514189 Lori E. Wright - 2006 - History Whitting- ton (1989) observed that approximately 100% of low-status Copan ... trends in health indicators in the combined sample because the biases of individual ... in most aspects of health experience is the most parsimonious explanation of ... Advances in Sport Psychology - Page 17 - Google Books Result https://books.google.com/books?isbn=0736057358 Thelma S. Horn - 2008 - Medical Much like scientists, practitioners seek to describe their observations of a ... away the nonessential assumptions and select the most parsimonious explanation in ... Model of relations between fear of failure, attentional bias, and performance in ... Reply to Commentaries: Biology and methodology – the quest for ... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov › NCBI › Literature › PubMed Central (PMC) by EF Schisterman - 2009 - Cited by 1 - Related articles ... Biology and methodology – the quest for parsimonious models of a complex reality ... The hypothesis regarding collider-stratification to explain the paradox has ... the observation that adjustment for birth-weight can result in biased estimates ... ClinicalTrials: Design, Conduct and Analysis https://books.google.com/books?isbn=0195387880 Curtis L. Meinert - 2012 - Medical A trial is valid if the most parsimonious explanation of the results is treatment ... of assignment that is independent of the wishes, desires, and biases of patients ... persisted despite the fact that the observed differences were within the range of ...
