دانلود رایگان مقاله لاتین تعیین طول عمر پروژه از سایت الزویر
عنوان فارسی مقاله:
یک مدل برای تعیین طول عمر پروژه و دوره تضمین پروژه های BOT
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
A model for determining the optimal project life span and concession period of BOT projects
سال انتشار : 2016
بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
2. Modeling process and assumptions
In general, BOT contracts are initiated by the government and entered into with the concessionaires upon completion of a bidding process. A BOT contract usually includes: the project property, project life span, construction period, total investment, expected return during operation period, operation and maintenance costs, concession period and the qualifications of the bidders. The modeling process starts with the general public sector Benefit/Cost Analysis (BCA) model derived from welfare economics; and the typical private sector corporate finance capital investment evaluation (CIE) model, as generally modified for project financed/BOT-type infrastructure projects. These enable the evaluation of the cash flows occurring throughout the project life cycle, including the total investment involved in construction, operation and maintenance costs, net social benefits and toll income. Next, the NPV for both the government and concessionaire is calculated. Finally, the principle for determining the concession period interval is introduced. The incentive structures for the BCA and CIE models are fundamentally different, which influences feasibility and the way benefits and costs are distributed, and frames the resulting cash flows and project evaluation by each sector. If the government decides to proceed with private sector participation after concluding a BCA, it has to consider which project benefits it can assign to the private sector in order to make it attractive for its participation. The utilization of discounted cash flow, on the other hand, is common to both the BCA and CIE models. Public sector agencies ideally first determine if a (any) project is desirable through the conduct of a BCA based on a “social rate of return” for the particular economic activity, before considering BOTs or other procurement mechanisms that may include private sector participation. How clearly project benefits and costs are defined, priced and distributed between the various parties and how they translate into potentially distributable cash flows are therefore critical in BOTs. Of particular importance are the often-used additional incentives granted to private sector interests in BOT transactions (such as minimum revenue guarantees, taxation incentives, and the like), as these are not costless or resource-neutral to governments and are often hidden off-balance sheet. Additionally, if a social cost emerges in the concession period, it may dramatically affect either party's benefit profile over the concession period, and the private sector may be allowed to socialize costs or bear them by itself. Also, if there is an unintended consequential benefit to the private sector, it may be expected to share this benefit only to the extent that it is contractually obliged to do so. However, of course, challenges exist in estimating social benefits and costs, and these are discussed in more detail below. 2.1. Optimal project life span and optimal concession period The project life span covers the construction and operation periods of the concessionaire and the government until the end of the project, and usually is a variable to be determined by the government. The optimal project life span,Tf, is defined as the ideal period such that, during [0,Tf], the total benefit, including economic and net social benefits, is maximized. T~ f denotes the optimal concession period for the private concessionaire. This is the period during which [0, T~ f], the highest economic benefit of the project occurs, and enables the upper boundary of the negotiation space from the investors' perspective to be determined.
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