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ما در مورد چگونگی تصمیم گیری های مهم مدیران چه چیزی درک می کنیم؟


عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:

What do we really understand about how managers make important decisions?



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Long ago, Albert Einstein claimed eloquently that ‘‘the intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.’’ Thus, not surprisingly, one reason that the study of intuition began to exercise an allure for managers and researchers was the acknowledgement that rational approaches, invaluable though they are, are less powerful and realistically viable than classical economic and decision theories might lead us to believe. This observation was expanded upon famously in the management literature by Nobel laureate Herbert Simon with his concept of ‘bounded rationality’, based on the precepts that in real world decision making the number of alternatives to be explored and the amount of information required is often very large, while the human brain’s information processing capacity, by comparison, is limited. Consequently managers satisfice, optimize, and intuit. Like Agor, Simon was part of a longer intellectual tradition that stretches back at least as far as Chester Barnard and his 1938 book The Functions of the Executive (and more speci- fically its appendix ‘‘The Mind in Everyday Affairs’’). In this work Barnard, who himself was a practicing executive at the New Jersey Bell Telephone Company, conceptualized intuition as a ‘‘non-logical mental process’’: ...mostly impressed upon us unconsciously or without conscious effort on our part. Because they are so complex and so rapid, often approaching the instantaneous, these processes cannot be analyzed by the person within whose brain they take place consisting, as they do, of a mass of patterns, concepts, techniques, and abstractions that increase in number and complexity with directed experience, study and education. (p. 302) There is continuity between the work of Barnard and Simon. Not only did Barnard write the preface to the original 1945 edition of Simon’s most famous work Administrative Behavior, Simon himself later acknowledged Barnard as providing a ‘‘persuasive account’’ of executives’ decision processes. Simon’s own thinking on the subject drew on research of expert performance and in particular De Groot’s studies of chess players, as well as the famous maxim that to acquire high-level expertise in chess requires an investment of approximately 10,000 h of playing and practice. Simon’s thinking on the subject became refined to the point that in the late 1980s he famously characterized intuition as ‘‘analyses frozen into habit and the capacity for rapid response through recognition.’’ (p. 63) Although in the popular view intuition is often taken to be synonymous with ‘‘gut feel,’’ Simon’s account of intuition is a mostly cognitive one. Managers’ responses to familiar situations become automated on the basis of pattern recognition. If there is a weakness in Simon’s theory of intuition it is the lack of a detailed explanation of intuitive affect (i.e., gut feelings, hunches, vibes, etc.). As we shall see, progress has been made to the extent that brain scientists are now able to offer insights into the neuroanatomical systems that may drive or underlie gut feel.



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کلمات کلیدی:

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