دانلود رایگان مقاله لاتین انتشار تجمعی سوخت فسیلی از سایت الزویر
عنوان فارسی مقاله:
انتشار تجمعی، سوخت فسیلی غیرمجاز و مالیات بر کربن بهینه
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Cumulative emissions, unburnable fossil fuel, and the optimal carbon tax
سال انتشار : 2016
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
3. Illustrative policy simulations
In our model in Section 2 we left most of the functional relationships, most importantly the carbon tax rule unspecified. To demonstrate the robustness of our simple model and the insights obtained from Eqs. (1)–(4), we present simulations for the optimal carbon tax and the business-as-usual (BAU) outcomes from our general equilibrium IAM with stock-dependent extraction costs and optimal energy transitions. While calibrated to real-world data, these simulations are meant to be illustrative in nature. The point demonstrates the proportionality of the optimal carbon tax relative to output as stated in Eq. (1). Our simulations are also the first where the Oxford carbon dynamics is implemented in an optimisation framework. In the baseline simulations we assume that the RTI is 0.1% per annum (Stern, 2007), IIA is 1.45 (Nordhaus, 2014) and productivity growth is 2% per annum (Barro, 2014). Table 1 presents these numbers and also a set of four sensitivity runs in which we analyse the effect of changes in the key parameters appearing in Eqs. (1)–(4). We also present a ‘conventional’ scenario which meets the standard assumptions economists make about the social rate of time impatience, the degree of intergenerational inequality aversion, and the trend growth rate of productivity. Fig. 1 reports the equilibrium trajectories for select key variables for the welfare-maximizing case (left panel) and BAU where no policy action is taken, i.e., the carbon tax remains at zero (right panel). We start with BAU (right panel) to illustrate the ruinous prospects for the world and highlight the need for climate policy. Without a carbon tax, firms are not forced to internalize the deleterious effects of fossil fuel and the market price of fossil fuel is sufficiently low for continued use of the dirty but cheaper input for most of the century. In the baseline BAU case 4760 GtC are burnt and global temperature peaks above 5 °C. This is in sharp contrast with the social optimum where only an eighth as much carbon is burnt and temperature peaks slightly above 2 °C (see discussion below). What is more, a maximal warming of 5 °C and cumulative carbon emissions in excess of 4500 GtC are a consistent feature of all our BAU simulations, regardless of the degree of RTI and IIA as these parameters mostly influence the carbon tax (which is zero in BAU). Under BAU the energy transition is driven solely by the cost differentials between fossil and renewable energy sources. Once the latter become competitive, fossil fuel use stops. The importance of climate policy is to drive an additional cost wedge between the two types of energy and bring forward the end of the carbon era. The trend growth rate does have a significant impact on BAU, but only on the timing of fossil fuel use in Eq. (4). As the economy grows more slowly, less fossil fuel is used in each period. This pushes out the time at which the economy switches to the carbon-free phase and allows technological progress in renewable energy generation to continue. Peak temperature is, however, only slightly lowered with cumulative emissions of about 4000 GtC, which is still more than 10 times the carbon budget compatible with keeping global warming below 2 °C. Given our simulations, BAU clearly is not an environmentally viable option. Fortunately, it is also very unattractive from a purely economic point of view not to adopt climate policy
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کلمات کلیدی:
Unburnable carbon: why we need to leave fossil fuels in the ground theconversation.com/unburnable-carbon-why-we-need-to-leave-fossil-fuels-in-the-gr... Apr 22, 2015 - That's according to a report released today by the Climate Council, “Unburnable Carbon: why we need to leave fossil fuels in the ground”. Cumulative emissions, unburnable fossil fuel, and the optimal carbon tax www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516304772 by F van der Ploeg - 2017 - Cited by 2 - Related articles A stylised analytical framework is used to show how the global carbon tax and the amount of untapped fossil fuel can be calculated from a simple rule given esti. Climate science: Unburnable fossil-fuel reserves. - NCBI - NIH https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25567276 by M Jakob - 2015 - Cited by 28 - Related articles [PDF]unburnable carbon: why we need to leave fossil ... - Climate Council www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/a904b54ce67740c4b4ee2753134154b0.pdf it is clear that other risks previously anticipated to lie only above 2°C may well occur at lower temperatures. UnbUrnable carbon: why we need to leave fossil ... Study: Most fossil fuels unburnable without carbon capture | Carbon Brief https://www.carbonbrief.org/study-most-fossil-fuels-unburnable-without-ccs May 19, 2016 - Most fossil fuel reserves are unburnable if the world is to avoid dangerous warming, but CCS could "unlock" greater use, concludes new report.
