دانلود رایگان مقاله لاتین اقتصاد کلان تحت تابع زیان نامتقارن از سایت الزویر
عنوان فارسی مقاله:
بررسی پیش بینی های اقتصاد کلان برای ژاپن تحت یک تابع زیان نامتقارن
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Assessing macroeconomic forecasts for Japan under an asymmetric loss function
سال انتشار : 2016
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
2. Data and related studies
I use three different sources for the forecast data: the Japanese government, the IMF, and the forecasts provided in Consensus Forecasts. For the actual outcomes, I refer to the data released one year after the initial forecasts were published (Batchelor, 2001). 2.1. Government forecasts Each December, the Japanese government publishes forecasts of important economic variables for both the ongoing year and the next fiscal year.5 I refer to these as the three-month (F1) and 15-month (F2) forecasts, respectively. In these forecasts, I examine the real GDP growth, nominal GDP growth, and inflation measured by consumer prices (CPI). The real GDP growth and inflation have been investigated extensively in the forecast evaluation literature. Furthermore, I also examine the nominal GDP growth because of its relevance to fiscal forecasting. In the economic forecasts, the nominal GDP, which is a broad measure of the income earned in a country, can be considered to be related the most closely to tax receipts, because tax revenues are a nominal variable and can be captured roughly by multiplying income with tax rates. The sample covers the period from fiscal 1975 to fiscal 2011.
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