دانلود رایگان مقاله لاتین اطلاعات بازاریابی از سایت الزویر
عنوان فارسی مقاله:
پیش بینی ساختاری برای اطلاعات بازاریابی
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Structural forecasts for marketing data
سال انتشار : 2017
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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
2. Individual-level models of behavior
Over the last 20 years, empirical research in marketing has found that simple economic models of behavior work well at the individual level (Allenby, Fennell et al., 2005). There are several reasons for this conclusion. First, it is rare to have more than 20 or so observations about a particular construct of interest for an individual. Respondents can become fatigued when answering many questions about a single object (e.g., satisfaction scales, conjoint survey responses), and it is rare to have extended purchase histories of individuals in a particular category without there being some sort of change in the market, such as a new product intervention. Data limitations naturally restrict the complexity and parameterization of a model, and researchers have found that high-level interactions are rarely supported by the data once consumer heterogeneity is included in a model structure. A second reason why simple models are favored is the real-world nature of forecasting. Marketing forecasts rely on individuals who have experience in a product category and are familiar with the offerings that are present. This is certainly true when using existing demand data, where consumers are paying for goods and services with their own money. In addition, forecasts based on stated preferences, as opposed to revealed preferences, are obtained using survey instruments in which respondents are screened so that they are included in the survey only if they are knowledgeable, interested and willing to purchase in the product category. This practice is in stark contrast to the behavioral studies in university settings that use undergraduate students without qualifications who participate for course credit. While many violations of simple economic models are documented in the academic literature, the expected effect sizes are usually difficult to determine because of the specialized nature of the sample (i.e., undergraduates) from which data are generated (see Frederick, Lee, & Baskin, 2014, Yang & Lynn, 2014).
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