دانلود رایگان مقاله لاتین فرصت پیش روی new normal چین از سایت الزویر
عنوان فارسی مقاله:
فرصت ها و چالش های پیش روی " New Normal " چین
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Opportunities and Challenges Ahead of China’s “New Normal”
سال انتشار : 2016
بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
Regional economic integration The late Alan Rugman has asserted that regionalization, rather than globalization, is a more apt characterization of the state of world trade. His assertion was based on an analysis of the sales and operations of the world’s 500 largest multinationals and is evidenced by the volume and intensity of trade among countries that form the European Union (EU) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), respectively. The trend toward regional economic integration can also be observed within the Asia Pacific (AP) region. China has concluded a free trade agreement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that creates a market of almost two billion people, approximately one-third of the world’s population; this represents the third largest free trade area after the EU and NAFTA. While lingering tensions still exist between some ASEAN countries and China, the latter’s trade with this region has grown at an average annual rate of 20 percent since 1995 to reach USD358 billion in 2013; this accounts for 14 percent of total ASEAN trade (Nguyen, 2014). Another significant regional economic agreement is the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement concluded in 2010 between China and Taiwan to allow for the free movement of capital, goods and services across the Taiwan Straits. This development, coupled with the return of Hong Kong and Macau to Chinese rule in 1997 and 1999, respectively, has made the concept of “Greater China” a true economic reality. Meanwhile, the U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) initiative seeks to integrate the economies of twelve countries on both sides of the Pacific. It is important to note that China has been excluded from this endeavor. Furthermore, the TPP has met with resistance in both the U.S. Senate and the House particularly in light of Wikileaks’ disclosure of a draft “Investment Chapter” pertaining to an agreement that allows foreign companies to sue the U.S. government “for actions that undermine their investment ’expectations’ and hurt their business” (Weisman, 2015). To partially counter the TPP, in a tour of Central Asian countries in 2013, Xi has called for a revival of the 2000-year-old land- and maritime-based Silk Road that once traversed countries in Central and South Asia to end in Australia. The maritime Silk Road seeks to connect the seaports westward to Antwerp, Belgium, along a path similar to the one that Zheng He reportedly traveled in his seven voyages of discovery (Rolland, 2015). When constructed, this new “Silk Road Economic Belt” will encompass a population of 4.4 billion people with a collective GDP of $2.1 trillion (one-third of the world’s wealth) and link “emerging markets with strong growth potential” (Rolland, 2015, 1). To translate this vision into reality, in February 2015, Beijing has launched a USD40 billion Silk Road infrastructure fund to be financed by China’s foreign reserves, China’s EXIM Bank and China Development Bank, among others. The new Silk Road project seeks to promote economic development in Central Asian and Middle/Near East countries, help China gain access to natural resources, promote its exports, and thereby ensure sustainable long-term development at home. In 2009, China overtook Russia to become the largest trading partner of countries in Central Asia (Toh, 2015). Even though many of the Central/Asian and Middle/Near East countries are still underdeveloped, as the late C.K. Prahalad (2005) indicated, there is “fortune” to be made “at the bottom of the pyramid” — approximately two-thirds of the world’s population occupy the lowest tier and is comprised of countries with some of the highest fertility rates and hence a very young demographic profile. This contrasts with the overall aging of the population in most industrialized countries in the world, including China, an issue to be discussed further under the “challenges” section. Aside from its economic significance to China, Rolland (2015, p. 4) has asserted that “(t)he birth of a transcontinental economic corridor... could change the global landscape, shifting the focus of strategy and commerce to the Eurasian landmass from the waters surrounding it and reducing the significance of U.S. naval supremacy. . . If Europe turns increasingly to Asia instead of looking across the Atlantic, and if China succeeds in linking itself more closely to Russia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East, then U.S. policymakers may be compelled to radically alter their traditional approaches to these regions and indeed the entire world”. In addition, China has championed the establishment of alternative financial institutions to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank in the form of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) that can further promote economic integration of the region (Hines, 2015).
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